COVID-19 Coronavirus, Avian Flu and other virus UK and World News Update 19th July 2024
"More from COVID inquiry on UK preparedness - strategy “outdated and lacked adaptability” , “fatal strategic flaws”, “lack of adequate leadership” by ministers, advisers and officials, Planning and policy “failed their citizens” , system was “unduly complex and labyrinthine”"
Hugh Pym, BBC News Health Editor, with the release of the first report from the UK COVID Inquiry.
Indeed the UK Covid-19 Inquiry published its Module 1 report yesterday, the results of their investigation into 'resilience and preparedness'. It's pretty damning.
"If we had been better prepared, we could have avoided some of the massive
financial, economic and human cost of the Covid-19 pandemic."
Main points:
- Epidemic planning was flu-specific, didn't work for COVID
- Too many institutions and structures were involved
- There was inadequate planning to manage and prevent risks, and respond to them effectively
- The 2011 pandemic strategy was out of date and not flexible enough to adapt
- Emergency planning failed to adequately consider health and social inequalities, and local authorities and volunteers were not involved enough
- They ignored lessons learnt from the past
- They didn't make use of systems already in place to test, trace, and isolate.
- Policy documents were outdated, overly-complicated, hard to understand and caused long delays
- Ministers received a poor range of scientific advice and didn't question what they were told
- Advisers weren't able to express other opinions, which led to blinkered one-way “groupthink” (basically no-one ever said "stop, wouldn't this be better").
Recommendations include:
- Simplifying and streamlining plans, and considering various risks (not just flu)
- Using lessons learnt from the past and from emergency drills by civil defence, and bearing in mind we are all different and not identical robots
- Regular reports on civil emergency preparedness, and a UK-wide pandemic response exercise at least every three years with a published outcome
- Wider research, better information sharing
- Bringing in outside experts for fresh/modern ideas and to challenge blinkered thinking
- "Lastly and most importantly, the creation of a single, independent statutory body responsible for whole system preparedness and response. It will consult widely, for example with experts in the field of preparedness and resilience, and the voluntary, community and social sector, and provide strategic advice to government and make recommendations."
If you want to read more, you can find the entire 240 page report online.The Rt Hon the Baroness Hallett DBE, Chair of the UK Covid-19 Inquiry has also kindly completed a brief summary, which is available in English, Welsh and Easy Read, video and BSL versions online at covid19 dot public-inquiry dot uk
Whooping Cough is still increasing across the UK. UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) figures for England only:
January 555 cases
February 920
March 1,427
April 2,106
May 2,591
9 infants have died
This compares to 858 confirmed cases in England in the whole of 2023.
Public Health Scotland have much more up to date figures, reporting 5,270 cases in 2024 up to 15th July, and the death of a child under 12 months.
Immunisation is the most effective protection. Pregnant women in the UK are being offered a vaccination in each pregnancy between 16 and 32 weeks, to give protection to their baby from birth. Infants are also immunised at 8, 12 and 16 weeks as part of the six-in-one vaccine.
In good news, don't say it too loud, but the UK's Measles outbreak seems to have really slowed down... shhhh
The UK nations will be the first in the world to begin a Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccination programme, starting this September.
RSV is one of the common viruses that cause coughs and colds in Winter, and unlike flu or COVID, it is very predictable, peaking in December each year. For most people it's an inconvenience, but for those who are more susceptible RSV infection might cause serious illness including pneumonia. It is the most common cause of bronchiolitis in infants, and if you've ever experienced your baby struggling to breathe, it is incredibly stressful and upsetting, and 30 years later, not something I'll ever forget.
In the UK RSV hospitalises around 39,000 people each year.
From 1st September, vaccination will be offered to pregnant women (over 28 weeks) to help protect newborn babies, and adults aged 75 or over.
If you thought Mpox (Monkeypox) had finished, sadly it hasn't. 26 countries reported cases to WHO in the month to 11th July.
The outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo shows no sign of slowing, with more than 11,000 cases reported this year, and 445 deaths, with children the most affected. South Africa has recently reported 20 cases of mpox to WHO, including three deaths, the first cases in that country since 2022.
Don't let your guard down entirely...
"After a second constructive meeting, I am pleased to announce that we will enter formal negotiations with the BMA junior doctors’ committee on Tuesday.
This is a crucial step forward, as we work to end this dispute and change the way junior doctors are treated in the NHS."
Wes Streeting, UK Government Secretary for Health. He doesn't mess about. He also issued a statement on 5th July saying:
"From today, the policy of this department is that the NHS is broken.... When I was diagnosed with kidney cancer, the NHS saved my life. Today, I can begin to repay that debt, by saving our NHS."
Woohoo! Go Wes, go Wes...
Right, shall we do H5N1 Avian Flu? The situation has not improved, the snowball is gaining pace.
"I asked why swabs from April were not tested until July. Oklahoma Agricultural Dept spokesman offered that the dairy banked the samples when it suspected it had H5N1 bird flu, then sent them for processing when USDA's compensation for lost milk production went into effect 6/27/24."
Helen Branswell, Infectious Diseases Editor for Stat News, and awarded fellowships by the US CDC, Harvard University and others.
Naughty. If you don't test, you don't have cases, right? Except you do.
H5N1 has a high mortality rate in birds, including poultry, but reports suggest most infected dairy cattle fully recover within a few weeks. This may explain why dairy farmers are more willing to pretend it isn't happening and aren't testing.
Missouri has not reported any positive cases in cows, but as of 9th July, only 17 of roughly 60,000 dairy cows had been tested.
By the latest US Department for Agriculture figures 165 dairy cattle herds across 13 states have confirmed H5N1 HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza - bird flu). Approximately 40% of dairy herds in Colorado are affected.
Now for the bad H5N1 news...
"welp, the human Colorado sequence on gisaid is definitely bovine origin - assuming its not got the wrong collection date (and is therefore the dairy-cattle related one) it means this poultry outbreak and subsequent human infections are cattle origin. What a mess..."
Tom Peacock, Fellow at the Pirbright Institute and the Department for Infectious Diseases at Imperial College.
So, to recap, birds originally infected US dairy cattle with Avian Flu. Somehow that has spread to poultry, who have now infected at least 5 humans at one farm.
This is not a good thing.
Avian flu needed mutations to pass to cows, and those mutations make it better suited to mammals. If captive farmed birds now have the mammal-friendlier version of Avian Flu, potentially it could spread back out to wild birds, who can take it around the world far more easily and quickly than cows can.
You want some more bad H5N1 news? Well, you don't have a choice...
"There are 5 known infected workers from the H5N1 poultry outbreak in Colorado, and they were all symptomatic.
Of the >1,000 poultry outbreaks in the last few years, this is the first case I know of where the exposed humans are symptomatic.
It's starting."
Marc Johnson, Molecular Virologist, Professor at Missouri School of Medicine.
In Prof. Johnson's extensive experience, when people have caught bird flu from farmed poultry in the past they've not had symptoms. In this case at least 5 workers have symptoms. When people have symptoms, bird flu has until now been pretty deadly - between January 2003 and March 2024 there were 888 human cases reported to WHO worldwide, 463 of those people died.
Is he just fretting, or is he going to be proven right to worry? Only time can answer that. He isn't the only scientist getting very twitchy, including some of the early COVID spotters. What is definitely true is that this has been massively downplayed, authorities are not taking major steps to stop it, and people are turning their face, hoping it'll just go away.
There are also rumours that more staff showed symptoms but tested negative, people downwind of the farm also had symptoms, and even that the CDC distributed Tamiflu locally - although crikey, do not ever take rumours without a huge pinch of salty cynicism.
 |
| Source: Helen Branswell on Twitter |
Honestly I'm not really up for another pandemic just now, can someone please knock H5N1 on the head? On the plus side at least the UK do have billions of ££££'s of good PPE still waiting to be destroyed because it's too expensive to store it... (don't rush with incinerating that lads).
People with Cancer have an increased risk of severe COVID, so scientists have flipped this to see if severe COVID can alert you to undiagnosed Cancer.
They studied 41,302 people in France who needed Intensive Care for COVID up until 31st August 2021, compared to over 713,000 matched people (same age, social group etc) who didn't. People who had spent time in the ICU were over 1 1/2 times as likely to be diagnosed with Cancer over the following 3 months, and remained almost 1 1/2 times as likely up to the end of the study period (average about 6 months).
Ziyad Al-Aly MD and other scientists from the Washington University School of Medicine have published their full study into risk of developing Long COVID.
It's good news, although it may not feel very much like it.
They studied 441,583 people who had COVID, split into 3 different pandemic eras (pre-delta, delta and omicron) & also split by vaccination status, and then returned to them 1 year later. No-one was vaccinated yet in the 'pre-Delta era'.
Among unvaccinated people, the cumulative incidence of Long Covid declined over the course of the pandemic from a high of 10.4 per 100 adults infected in the pre-delta era to 7.7 per 100 adults infected in the omicron era.
Among vaccinated people, the cumulative incidence of Long Covid declined from 5.3 per 100 adults infected in the delta era to 3.5 per 100 adults infected in the omicron era.
The results showed that although risk of developing Long COVID has fallen for everyone due to changes in the virus and other 'era effects', vaccination basically cuts your chance of developing Long COVID by around half on average, however many times you actually catch COVID infection.
This backs up what we can see in reality - that Long COVID was far more likely to develop in people at the beginning, but still occurs, and will continue to occur. It will be very costly, to the individuals involved, and to the Governments, health services and societies who will have to cope with millions of (hopefully temporarily) disabled people.
They also found differences in Long COVID symptoms. Although less people overall develop Long COVID in the Omicron era, more people suffer from gastro-intestinal and metabolic disorders. In total there are over 200 recorded symptoms of Long COVID, many of which can be easily seen in blood tests, x-rays or scans. It is very much real damage caused by the infection.
"Millions already have Long Covid, and millions more will continue to be affected. Governments must address the care needs of those with Long Covid, and we must intensify our efforts to understand, prevent, and figure out how to optimally treat Long Covid."
Ziyad Al-Aly.
Famous People With COVID
An unanticipated return because US President Joe Biden has tested positive for COVID. He is not a young man, but is fully vaccinated and has had COVID before, so his immunity is in it's best place. I wish Mr Biden and anyone else with COVID a speedy recovery. (There are also rumours he may step down over the weekend. Just rumours.)
We thought we'd heard the last from NHS COVID-times centenarian Sir Captain Tom Moore's daughter, Hannah Ingram-Moore, but we haven't.
Captain Sir Lord Tom wrote in the forward to one of his 3 books:
"Astonishingly at my age, with the offer to write this memoir I have also been given the chance to raise even more money for the charitable foundation now established in my name."
Readers crazily assumed that meant proceeds from the books were going to charity. His daughter Hannah took it to mean "give all profits to the delightful Hannah", and even said in an interview "It's what he would have wanted".
The Times has spoken to the people who put the book together. Seems they also assumed the money went to charity and not Hannah's spa fund - although no-one seems to have confirmed it because it was so blinking obvious...
A quick mention for the UK's COVID-times Chief Scientist. Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, because the new Government seem to think putting experts into positions of influence might be a better thing than playing roulette with whoever fancies a bash at being in charge of things like money or education this week... I think so too.
It is the weekend! And the school holidays! We are due hot weather in the UK and elsewhere, so be sensible and look out for the little ones, old ones and furry ones. We are off to a local beach, and whatever your plans, make sure you have some time for you, you've earnt it. Treat yourself to something nice, especially if you are looking ahead to 6 weeks of working from home with the kids. It's daunting, but you can do it.
Thoughts right now with all of the people affected by wars, floods, landslides, fires and extreme temperatures around the world - there is some hellishness going on out there. Stay sensible.
I'll be back in a couple of weeks...
Drink Water, Wear A Hat, Save The NHS.
.
.
.
.
..
Sources:
images
Heat health safety
WHO immunization image
UK COVID Inquiry Hugh Pym
COVID Inquiry Module 1
https://x.com/covidinquiryuk/status/1813160041400181007?t=hvo1FP6K70zzVmQKQK-bfw&s=19
Death rates UK
https://x.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1813537856155255219?t=C6jh4qtzbrSKcRMF71OtpQ&s=09
Whooping cough UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-encourages-timely-vaccination-as-whooping-cough-cases-rise
Measles UK
RSV vaccination plans UK
https://x.com/UKHSA/status/1813479487801098598?t=8GjcNoBgTuvLiukMXKKjsA&s=19
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/respiratory-syncytial-virus-rsv-symptoms-transmission-prevention-treatment/respiratory-syncytial-virus-rsv-symptoms-transmission-prevention-treatment
mpox
Junior Doctors discussions
https://x.com/wesstreeting/status/1813913999244918955?t=JcJi5e414iax8Wi9QE6d9Q&s=09
https://x.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1810716984847262144?t=ALzWNvC9a6KBixoS0B3enA&s=09
Latest H5N1 figures Tuesday 9th week 1
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1810689246899974636?t=bD31__U0a1D2XBopCAVcGw&s=09
Cancer and severe COVID
Ziyad Al-Aly Long COVID risk variants and vaccinations
https://theconversation.com/long-covid-puzzle-pieces-are-falling-into-place-the-picture-is-unsettling-233759?s=09
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2403211
https://medicine.wustl.edu/news/risk-of-long-covid-declined-over-course-of-pandemic/
https://x.com/zalaly/status/1813682291149086989?t=cFu0-rt8HNeCDYIidmljqg&s=09
Captain Tom's book profits
Sources Bird Flu:
H5N1
Tuesday week 2 H5N1
H5N1 monday week 2 15th July
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1812903503632998494?t=9k5i-LjcaBg-uJ7qydJtVQ&s=09
Missouri H5N1
Latest stats Helen Branswell Thursday night
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1814061794820026660?t=xTRMCPd91GcR9wLJCZDDig&s=09
By Helen Branswell's reckoning, 40% of herds in Colorado have at least 1 cow which has tested positive for Avian Flu.
Bird flu in poultry sources:
5 humans infected with avian flu via cattle via poultry
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1813491730349477931?t=HsCZN_NnnHqU91Z4eYbaXg&s=19
https://x.com/SolidEvidence/status/1813954220628074954?t=KtqtVDrisdpRwq3W7o6ryA&s=19
The APHIS/USDA link Marc provided might not be the most informative. EVERYONE was symptomatic but only a few tested positive. Some people not on the farm, but downwind from the farm were symptomatic.
That sort of "different".
https://x.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1813971228438438380?t=dpr3uHMJRVjbYV5FlEdEyg&s=19
We can provide a source that proves CDPHE indicated upwards of 60 workers on the farm had symptoms but only a few tested "presumptive" but we can't provide a source to evidence the CDC has administered nearly 500 doses of Tamiflu to this farm and surrounding areas.
https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/influenza-h5n1
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for taking the time to leave a comment. I read every one and try my best to reply!