COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 16th August 2024

COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 16th August 2024

"Today, the Emergency Committee met and advised me that in its view, the situation constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). I have accepted that advice."

Dr Tedros, Head of WHO, with the unfortunate job that no head of WHO ever wants. It's his 3rd time announcinga PHEIC, and the 2nd for Mpox (aka Monkeypox)... 

"Mpox has been reported in DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) for more than a decade, and the number of cases reported each year has increased steadily over that period.

Last year, reported cases increased significantly, and already the number of cases reported so far this year has exceeded last year’s total, with more than 14,000 cases and 524 deaths.

As many of you who tune into our regular press conferences know, WHO has been working on the mpox outbreak in Africa and raising the alarm that this is something that should concern us all."

2 years ago there was an outbreak of Mpox across the world. It was a new variant, labelled subclade 2b, the first time Mpox spread extensively from human to human, and expecially via sexual contact. Compared to previous human infections with Mpox the mortality rate was low - most likely around 1%.

The 2b outbreak has been fairly limited, especially where those who were most at risk could be quickly vaccinated using a jab derived from the Smallpox virus. Across most of the world it has petered out, although it has never gone away. 

In DRC the original Clade 1 Mpox is endemic, and every year a few people are infected, this is a hazard of living in close proximity to disease carrying animals. Most humans infected are children, who can sometimes also infect other members of their household. Last Autumn the number of people being infected by other people began to rise sharply, and that rise has continued. The Clade 1 virus has mutated, or evolved, inside some of those human bodies, and it doesn't take a genius to see that it is more easily transmitted human to human. The mutated variant has been labelled Clade 1b, and it is this variant which has caused the PHEIC. 

So far it seems Clade 1b Mpox is less deadly than other Clade 1 Mpox in the past, but possibly a little worse than the 2b 2022 epidemic variant. It is very hard to tell because DRC is mainly poor and rural, young children make up the majority of patients, and access to testing is limited unless people are taken to hospital or quarantine. Best educated guesses suggest Clade 1b has a mortality rate of around 1-3%, and it has already begun to spread to neighbouring countries, with confirmed cases in Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya. Although the degree of under. That's not good. Announcing a PHEIC allows WHO to free up funding and emergency resources. It allows poorer countries to ask for help with vaccinations and medical care. It is in all of our best interests that this is curtailed as quickly as possible, not least because every person it passes through is another chance for it to mutate further. 

The risk from Mpox Clade 1b to anyone living away from the affected areas is currently LOW. Mpox is harder to catch than COVID. It is spread usually by skin to skin contact, caring for an Mpox patient or sharing clothes or bedding, or by close contact with infected animals (which don't exist in the UK). In graphic terms it causes spots which can become large, weepy and crust over, and the fluid or pus seeping from the sores/ rash/ lesions carries the virus, as do other body fluids - including snot and spit.

It is therefore possible to catch Mpox by kissing or holding unwashed hands, or even talking to someone, but you'd have to be in very close proximity or spend a lot of time with them.

The UK HSA are on alert, and any suspected Mpox should be treated seriously. Any confirmed Mpox will be tested to see which variant it is. From the beginning of 2023 to the end of July 2024 the UK has detected 286 cases of Mpox.

- 269 in England (116 UK acquired, 82 caught abroad, the rest as yet unsure)

- 11 in Scotland (3 UK acquired, 7 imported)

- 1 in Wales (imported)

- 5 in Northern Ireland (1 UK acquired, 1 imported)

NONE of these were the more serious Clade 1 Mpox strains, all were Clade 2b (the 2022 outbreak). At this point no Clade 1b infections have been detected in the UK.

Sweden yesterday announced they had detected the first case of the more contagious Clade 1b Mpox outside Africa. 

The affected person had recently stayed in an area of Africa with lots of cases, sought early treatment and risk to the wider Swedish public is deemed to be low. 

This will without doubt be the first of many.

And on cue... Pakistan today has announced suspected Mpox in a man who had returned from Saudi Arabia. 

Mpox usually isn't fun and you do feel poorly.

Common symptoms begin around 1-2 weeks after infection. They include a skin rash or pus-filled lesions which can last 2 to 4 weeks, and can leave a scar. It can also cause fever, headaches, muscle aches, back pain, low energy and swollen lymph nodes.

Most of the symptoms can be caused by something other than Mpox, including Chicken Pox or flu, so early identification can be tricky unless you know you've been in contact with an infected person.

"Hospital admissions with Covid in England hit another peak in July - the highest since January.

They are now decreasing, with the 7-day average falling by 14% in the last week of July. Hopefully this is now a sustained fall, in contrast to the dip reported at the end of June."

Stuart McDonald, COVID Actuary

Hopefully so, all of the other stats do point to a downwards curve in COVID infections at the moment... ahhhh. 

Meanwhile over the pond... 2,974 people were reported to WHO to have died from COVID in July. The vast majority were American. COVID is still a problem.  

UK NHS data shows that the number of patients waiting more than 12 hours in A&E, after the decision to admit, is horrific. Each month in 2024 so far has beaten all previous records. That's not something we really want to brag about. 

"NHS dentistry is broken. We are determined to rebuild it.

 Today’s meeting with The BDA (British Dental Association) was extremely useful with some great ideas on next steps. 

 We are working to provide 700,000 more urgent dental appointments, recruit new dentists and reform the dental contract."

Stephen Kinnock, Minister of State for Primary, Adult Social and Community Care.

Dentists have been crying out for a new NHS dental contract for literally decades. Unless all you need is a look and maybe a filling, they aren't paid enough to cover the staff time and equipment needed. That's why you can't get an NHS dentist - it's not really financially possible to run an NHS dentist.

Don't let us down Stephen. Your mouth is the window to your whole body health, and it's been neglected for far too long. 

Latest stats show that there were over 10,000 cases of Whooping Cough in England in the first half of 2024. More than 300 were babies under 3 months old, and 10 of those infants succumbed. 

Pregnant women are being reminded that vaccination at the right time in your pregnancy provides 92% protection against losing your child if they become infected, and has been used successfully for a very long time indeed. 

The H5N1 bird flu outbreak in US cattle herds is plodding along. It's very hard to say if it's slowing down for sure, and only Colorado seems to be doing bulk testing as a precautionary measure, but the pace does seem slower.

As of today APHIS has recorded 192 herds affected in 13 states - this includes 1 alpaca herd. The number of dairy workers infected remains at 4, which is excellent news - although not for those 4 people. 

The US CDC are stressing the importance of a seasonal flu jab for any US farmworkers in close contact with livestock, especially birds or dairy cows. It will NOT protect you from bird flu, but it will lessen the chance of you getting bird flu and human flu together, and becoming patient zero for a nasty recombination mutant hybrid flu virus that no-one wants. 

Famous People With COVID:

Hands up if you are an Olympian and you have COVID! There appears to have been a significant outbreak in the Olympic Viĺlage, with at least 40 athletes testing positive. It started with swimmers reporting positive tests in droves, and then spread from the pool to other athletes. 

The decisions on whether to test and whether to compete if you got a positive result were left up to the teams and athletes themselves. That is a world of difference from the previous Olympics, and shows how much our lives have changed. Relief for those who have mild symptoms and have put years of their life into a single medal chance, but you probably wouldn't be so happy if you caught it while at the Olympics, became ill and missed your own chance at glory.

UK swimmer Adam Peaty tested positive the day after his Silver medal winning performance, and US Sprinter Noah Lyles tested positive shortly before his Bronze.

Cases of Syphillis and antibiotic-resistant Gonorrhoea are on the rise in the UK. It isn't just young people who get STI's, and they don't take a break when you are on your holidays. Anyone who is not in a monogamous long term relationship should be aware of their own sexual health, and regular testing is recommended. Testing is free on the NHS, and these days you can even order at-home tests which you pop into the post - no embarrassment for even the most sensitive soul. 

It is the weekend. I can't get my laptop to join in with the new wifi, so I've posted from my phone. I ran out of time, so I've skipped a couple of stories and will come back to them if they still seem relevant next time. We have been exceptionally busy - we bought a house and moved in, and it's awesome. After 51 weeks being homeless I do not care that we have discovered woodworm in the loft or leaks in the shed roof, they are our woodworm and our leaks, and that feels great (I'm sure it'll wear off, but I'm going to ride this wave as long as I can!).

I hope you all have something to smile about and the last 2 weeks were kind to you. Don't forget to treat yourself - you've earnt it, and the weather forecast for the UK this weekend seems sunny and nice. 

I'll be back and hopefully far more organised in 2 weeks...

Wear Protection, Look After Your Health, Save The NHS... 

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Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

Mpox image

https://x.com/WHO/status/1823772828597928054?t=B2pbk2V-36IutotgiBHpJw&s=19

Image mpox uk 

https://x.com/UKHSA/status/1824033574967787997?t=4m4jHZiLTOGQPtTy4FxsXg&s=09

Mpox

https://x.com/COVID19_disease/status/1820258376061714939?t=2jcGOMX7XYaFB-zMXVWHXg&s=09

https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp#:~:text=All%20travelers%20to%20areas%20with,avoiding%20materials%20that%20came%20into

https://www.science.org/content/article/deadlier-strain-mpox-spreads-more-african-countries

https://x.com/WHO/status/1821525612399321455?t=BVnhBrz9Fu0-jmDDynWlcg&s=09

https://www.upday.com/uk/health-officials-on-alert-for-uk-cases-of-new-mpox-strain

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03130-3 https://www.upday.com/uk/who-declares-mpox-outbreaks-in-africa-a-global-health-emergency

https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern

https://www.statnews.com/2024/08/14/who-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-global-health-emergency/

https://x.com/WHO/status/1823771400420909265?t=PQPec14_t3yixhwqawFgHQ&s=19

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/who-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-epidemiological-overview/mpox-monkeypox-outbreak-epidemiological-overview-8-august-2024

Hospital admissions England

https://x.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1821471697112862872?t=dAzAzpMQztpqJA1dmv54rw&s=09

Covid deaths 

https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths?n=o

https://x.com/AcrossTheMersey/status/1821371171582959664?t=IehMG4xpxrA5AMgnRIrKJg&s=09

A&E waits 

https://x.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1821533182459596972?t=hZSVVfon8cvEWxct5gp0_w&s=09

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ae-waiting-times-and-activity/

Nhs dentists

https://x.com/SKinnock/status/1823764296595128748?t=qjQit8ExDv-qgZk29X4uUg&s=09

Sweden Mpox

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gqr5lrpwxo

https://www.upday.com/uk/sweden-announces-first-case-of-more-contagious-mpox-found-outside-africa

Pakistan mpox

https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/after-sweden-pakistan-logs-suspected-case-of-deadly-mpox-virus-10-updates-124081600674_1.html

Whooping cough

https://www.upday.com/uk/further-baby-death-from-whooping-cough-brings-current-outbreak-total-to-10

H5N1

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/index.html

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/hpai-confirmed-cases-livestock

https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1824120531089531191?t=Qywr5KWqFUBHBpLtMfa1JA&s=09

Olympic covid

https://x.com/BBCSport/status/1821620937445298346?t=p_ycKhIAC0pGxAs70gvCTQ&s=09

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/summer-olympic-games-paris-covid-success-story/story?id=112829794&cid=social_twitter_wnt

Uk STI

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/antibiotic-resistant-gonorrhoea-cases-are-on-the-rise

https://x.com/UKHSA/status/1824058205539795190?t=R57bIc1mp0v9L1RGUlYg7w&s=09