COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 27th September 2024

COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 27th September 2024

The UK's 'cumulative mortality' continues to run at a level lower than would be expected historically. Summed up by COVID Actuary Stuart McDonald:

"Age-standardised death rates this year have tracked the best year on record (2019) very closely, except during the Covid-19 waves in June and July when death rates were a bit higher."

It's a very sad victory, but after so many people died early due to COVID, we would expect death rates to be lower than averages once stability returns. Last year it was clear that hadn't happened, this year looks more promising (unless XEC ruins it). 

It looks like XEC will be the next COVID variant to become dominant, and potentially cause a significant wave across Europe, and beyond. It may well already be having a quiet assault on the UK, as in England the numbers of hospital patients with respiratory problems who test positive (almost 12%) are creeping up towards where they were in the Summer wave (around 13%).

Hospitalisations are also up (3.71 per 100,00), almost doubling where they were in August (2.0), but not yet as high as during the worst of the Summer wave in July (4.7). 

XEC is a 'recombinant', a mix of strains KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 which likely happened inside a single person's body while they were infected with both at the same time. From the Omicron lineage and first detected in Germany just 3 weeks ago, XEC is spreading out throughout Europe, and showing an advantage to other strains. It now accounts for around 1 in 6 cases in Germany, 82 cases have been detected in the UK, and it has already been spotted in 27 countries, including the USA. 

Because XEC is a mix of 2 known strains, vaccinations and previous immunity should be as effective as before, and there are no signs that it is more severe - just easier to spread and likely to infect a lot of people. 

The UK's Autumn booster vaccination programme begins next week. If you have been invited, you can book your jab now. Eligible people include:

- adults aged 65 years and over

- residents in a care home for older adults

- individuals aged 6 months to 64 years in a clinical risk group (a much smaller group than previously, that doesn't include immunosuppressed people or their households)

- frontline NHS and social care workers, and those working in care homes for older people

“We find a very consistent story in terms of this pointing to the market as being the very likely origin of this particular pandemic.”

Professor Kristian Andersen, Scripps Institute. 

Researchers from the United States and France feel it is now "far beyond reasonable doubt" that COVID originated at the Huanan seafood market.

Thats probably as close to definite you'll ever get from a scientist. 

In a newly released paper they analysed hundreds of samples collected by Chinese authorities in 2020, including 800 collected on 1st January at the market. The researchers were able to identify areas of the market with particularly high levels of COVID, and finally we have a list of the potential animals which could have passed the infection to humans - raccoon dog, hoary bamboo rat, dog, European rabbit, Amur hedgehog, Malayan porcupine, Reeves’s muntjac, Himalayan marmot and masked palm civet. 

The scientific community have responded. All available scientific data supports the suggestion the market was 'ground zero', and genetic testing of the strains of COVID found in samples around the market matches the first known human cases. Genetic testing also shows some of the animals found were not from the areas they were supposed to be from, and some of the 'farmed' animals were actually wild. Very naughty, and as it turns out, the world may have paid a very high price for that deceit. Rules really are there for a reason...  

No more UK rail strikes - for now at least. 

Train Drivers have voted by 96% in favour of a new pay deal. They will receive around 15% over 2 years. 

Members of RMT union have voted 99% in favour of a new pay offer. Train operators will receive 4.75% for the last year and 4.5% for 2024/25, Network Rail will receive 4.5% this year. 

Doctors in training (previously Junior Doctors) have voted 2 to 1 to accept the latest pay deal. It is tricky maths, as it is involves 'pay scale uplifts' and percentage rises on top of previously promised percentage rises, but basically amounts to around 22.3% on average over the next 2 years.

A new NHS doctor in Foundation Training will see a rise from around £32,400 to £36,600, and a full-time doctor training for a specialty will see a rise from about £43,900 to £49,900.  

English Nurses who are in the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) union have rejected a pay offer of 5.5%.

5.5% has already been accepted by other union members, but there was a massive turnout for this vote, and RCN members voted 2 to 1 against. They feel '10 years of neglect' can't be put right with a single pay award matching current inflation rates. 

Bad luck Mr Streeting... can't win them all first try...

Just when UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting thought it was safe to go back in the water... Pharmacists have raised their head above the parapet. 

It seems every single part of the UK health system was expected to deliver 2024 service at 2014 prices, and that wasn't going to last forever. Pharmacists say they are struggling to operate a viable business if they open for the 40 hours they are required to open, let alone paying staff and costs to open for extended hours. The Pharmacy First scheme, where people get help from their pharmacy for simple ailments, has added extra workload and prescriptions, bumping costs even more, when in reality it should mean extra earnings. Like Dentistry and GPs, the payment system was invented by some evil genius, and is not in the best interests of patients, healthcare facilities or workers, or even the taxpayer. It does need a massive overhaul. 

H5N1 Avian Influenza in US cattle, and California's bulk testing found another 7 infected herds last week.

It is still unclear how a random Missouri man with no links to livestock or wild birds caught H5N1, and even more worrying, it has been disclosed today that a total of 6 (six) healthcare workers who looked after the man became ill. Only 1 has been tested. So, okay, at the time they didn't realise he had H5N1, but really, this is incredibly remiss as regards looking after healthcare workers. They deserve better. The healthcare workers are now being tested, so hopefully we'll be told if they did manage to catch H5N1 from another human sometime very soon. If so this is massive bad news, or they could just have had nasty colds. 

Current total since April 2024 stands at 14 human cases of avian influenza A(H5) in the US. 4 were associated with sick cows, 9 poultry, and Missouri man.

Current herds infected stands at 239 herds across 14 states. 

Risk to the wider public (and wider world) is still considered LOW. 

Latest available data still shows no cases of the more dangerous and transmissible Clade 1b Mpox in the UK, however the Government are readying themselves. More than 150,000 more doses of Mpox vaccine have been ordered from supplier Bavarian Nordic.

Although Mpox Clade 1b is spreading throughout the general population in DRC, and mainly affecting children (around 70% of cases), the UK Government and NHS will continue to offer vaccinations to those previously affected by the 2022 Mpox Clade 2 outbreak - at-risk health workers and carers, and men who sleep with other men. 

Still on Mpox, last week WHO delivered 3,500 GeneXpert testing cartridges to the DRC.

"These vital supplies will enhance Mpox testing in the hardest-hit provinces and strengthen the overall response."

The UK COVID Inquiry continues. Yesterday Professor Kevin Fong gave heartbreaking testimony about his time in hospital intensive care units at the height of the second wave in late Dec 2020. If you want to be reminded just how terrifying, traumatic and soul-destroying it was watching patient after patient die, unable to help them breathe, his testimony is available online. 

Earlier we heard from Chief Nurses, who talked about the fact it was nurses who bore the brunt. Not only did they have to watch their patients die in spite of their best efforts, but they were doing it in unsuitable PPE and masks, for very long hours, avoiding their own loved ones and often terrified they themselves one day may not go home. 

Last week the UK COVID Inquiry looked at one of the biggest pieces of erroneous information from back in 2020. COVID was always airborne, but most of the major Government-advising scientists got that wrong. For several months we were all told COVID had large droplets that couldn't spread easily without coughs or sneezes, when in fact the virus droplets were so tiny they could float around the room in the air. 

One of those frustrating occasions when the evidence in front of our eyes (e.g. classrooms full of infected kids) didn't match up with what our Governments and even the World Health Organisation were saying.

Jim Reed of BBC Radio has done an excellent piece on this 'misunderstanding', which I believe may be a podcast, as well as on his blog. 

After compiling his damning report on the state of the nation's health, Lord Darzi was in The Guardian with his ideas for how to fix it, and in my view he is a sensible and very clever chap. For a long time UK Government have led as if they only have this week to think of, never in the best interests of the country long term. I'm actually quite surprised they didn't all board a shuttle for Mars because they behaved like they were off any minute...

Lord Darzi advises:

1. "...make healthy life expectancy a central focus of everything they do in government." Have aspirational long term targets, like we do with other things, such as net zero and phasing out less green cars.

2. "...make health a cross-society endeavour." For example bring businesses on board because employees off sick are costly all round. We should all be concerned about everyone having the best health we can.

3. "...use the revenue from health levies to invest in the foundations of good health."

Look after our children now, start them off well, and reap the benefits in the decades to come. He even suggests Sure Start and free school meals are proven ways to improve children's health, as well as better promotion of vaccinations and dietary health.

PA News Agency have been delving into the latest UK figures for 'economically inactive' people. These are people of working age who don't work or earn any money. It includes folk like students, early retired people, unpaid carers and those who are unable to work because of a temporary condition or illness.

In 2014 2.03 million people in the UK were 'economically inactive' due to long-term sickness. In 2019 it was 2.05 million people (possibly reflecting overall population growth). The ONS as we know have adjusted the way they count population trends, but even so, in May -July 2024 there were 2.79 million economically inactive people not working because of long-term sickness.

Long COVID is something China and a few other countries took incredible steps to minimise - mainly by preventing infections and repeat infections, at least until after vaccinations, which reduces Long COVID massively. It would be really interesting to be able to find similar stats (I tried, I failed) and see how much of a difference it has made. It won't all be about Long COVID. A lot of people decided to stop working after COVID, or chose not to go back. COVID made all of us much more aware of what is truly important in our lives. 

And on that note, we have a 16th birthday here today, so I shall leave it there and go off to eat cake and play games with balloons. I hope you are doing something nice, treat yourself - you've earnt it!! 

Play Outdoors If You Can, Catch The Last Of The Year's Sun, Save The NHS... 

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Sources: 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

CMI death rates and Image 

https://x.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1838952581994787294?t=JXnYT5GYLvf0JK9e83X7UQ&s=09

Jr Doctors Image 

https://x.com/BMA_JuniorDocs/status/1835736780366065752?t=oq5yPmABILsoCTXsaiSCvw&s=09

https://x.com/WHO/status/1839576065615782235?t=-nnobMZfdJrPciTi6I-nUw&s=09

https://x.com/WHO/status/1839560810248479020?t=OdEziqjoyt6MDgl-xlnvNA&s=19

XEC and UK data 

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/covid-hospitalisations-soar-xec-variant-waning-immunity-3296985

Week1

https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/tv/new-covid-variant-xec-spreading-29936933

Week 2 tuesday 

New XEC Covid variant spreading 'more easily' as cases rise - CoventryLive

https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/health/new-xec-covid-variant-spreading-29988557

Week 2 thursday

XEC Covid variant and the 'distinctive' new strain symptoms revealed - Wales Online

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/xec-covid-variant-distinctive-new-30005642

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/health/covid-xec-variant-symptoms-29997371

https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2024/08/02/whos-eligible-for-the-2024-covid-19-vaccine-or-autumn-booster/

RCN nurses refuse pay offer 

https://www.upday.com/uk/nurses-reject-governments-pay-offer-of-5-5-rise

Mpox vaccinations 

https://www.upday.com/uk/uk-stocks-mpox-jabs-as-government-prepares-for-new-strain

https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2024/09/16/how-are-we-tracking-mpox-in-the-uk/

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-secures-more-vaccines-to-help-boost-resilience-against-mpox

Mpox testing supplies

https://x.com/WHOAFRO/status/1837125776388272238?t=Qg4gCzwE08a5muEetKt7hg&s=09

Wuhan market 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-wuhan-origin-china-food-market-souce-b2616112.html

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/19/health/huanan-animal-market-analysis-covid-19/index.html

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-study-on-genetic-tracing-at-the-huanan-seafood-market-to-investigate-possible-covid-virus-origins/

Train strikes over 

https://www.upday.com/uk/no-more-rail-strikes-as-workers-vote-to-accept-pay-offers

https://www.upday.com/uk/train-drivers-vote-to-accept-pay-offer-ending-two-year-dispute

Doctors in training 

https://www.upday.com/uk/junior-doctors-in-england-accept-pay-deal-after-two-year-dispute

RCN nurses refuse pay offer 

https://www.upday.com/uk/nurses-reject-governments-pay-offer-of-5-5-rise

Pharmacists 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1e8755xv01o?s=09

Covid inquiry 

https://x.com/chrischirp/status/1839257368435019881?t=85G4EEamHQib-GpHQucHSg&s=19

https://x.com/jim_reed/status/1837387859398979767?t=YC4pFPPx4hFJBkLGqYjlXw&s=09

Covid is airborne

https://x.com/jim_reed/status/1835380652226519414?t=0tjawkG50PFgweOMJ2S8EQ&s=09

Avian flu

https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1837158544933601345?t=3eCiMQOC_NXPZ3IcYXWxsA&s=09

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/h5n1-response-09272024.html

Lord Darzi

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/18/report-nhs-healthy-life-expectancy-government-policy-health-service?s=09

Long-term sickness in the UK workforce:

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/qGo7JB