COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 11th October 2024
England's hospital admissions with COVID rose by 69% over September, so the wave did continue, and alas it seems it's not peaked yet. Cases are a mystery, as hardly anyone tests, but I know it is running around our local area at the moment, which is a lot rarer than it was when we were in Manchester.
"10,096 deaths were registered in England and Wales, week ending 27 September 2024 (Week 39):
· 10.7% lower than the expected number (1,215 fewer deaths)
· 12.8% involved influenza or pneumonia (1,291 deaths)
· 1.4% involved COVID19 (143 deaths)"
It's absolutely great that we have sustained the lower losses of life, but 143 people still officially died from COVID last week - it really isn't 'over'.
There is a very important and somewhat grounding point to note, as Stuart McDonald of the COVID Actuaries explains:
"Mortality rates for young adults are still higher than any recent pre-pandemic year.
The CMI quarterly mortality monitor published yesterday shows that only 2021 and 2023 had higher death rates than we’ve seen so far in 2024."
We are still losing far too many people too early. It's hard to pull apart exactly why, but cardiovascular mortality is the main driver - heart and blood conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, aneurysm etc. These are areas we know can often sustain damage from COVID infection.
The UK COVID Inquiry continues. I missed it last report, but a couple of weeks ago the inquiry heard from Dr Lisa Ritchie, who chaired the group which wrote the Covid infection control guidance for UK hospitals, and is currently still the Head of Infection Prevention Control for NHS England.
- They had a plan in place for a SARS outbreak, but didn't follow it.
- Clinicians working in high risk areas wore FFP3 masks and died less often than those on wards or other 'safer' roles in surgical masks, but they didn't think that warranted changing all staff to FFP3 masks.
- Under repeated and very clear questioning, she still doesn't feel COVID is generally caught via aerosol particles floating in the air. She still believes most people catch it via close contact from droplets (e.g. sneezing near someone or breathing into their face) and touch (e.g. snotty fingers on a door handle or tending to a patient).
- Prof Susan Hopkins, UKHSA Chief Medical Officer, also testified that she didn't think FFP3 masks should be recommended, although she does at least appreciate aerosol transmission is a big part of how COVID spreads.
Good news for anyone worrying about catching COVID on the bus then, eh (no it isn't, that was a joke). It's been over 3 years since even the UK Government began running public adverts explaining COVID floats in the air. I honestly despair.
Huge thanks to CatInTheHat on Twitter for collating video evidence for this one.
This week Dr Catherine Finnis has been giving evidence to the UK COVID inquiry on behalf of clinically vulnerable families.
She talked about errors in the shielding lists, meaning some people who should have been protected were expected to go to work, and some people were told several weeks in that they needed to shield. ?
There was a lack of understanding about how long shielding might go on, the difficulties raising and entertaining children while shielding, and worry over them attending school/not attending school, and not being vaccinated.
When shielding ended 'normal' life was meant to just resume, then shielding returned, then it ended again. Masks were on, then off, and almost half of people surveyed reported serious verbal abuse about their masks.
Shielding annoyed and/or confused some employers. Clinically vulnerable people were more often chosen for redundancies. Self employed clinically vulnerable people had a harder struggle to keep businesses afloat. Statutory sick pay left many in a dire financial situation, and with higher costs, as they needed good masks, home deliveries and to avoid busier places. A lot of people couldn't afford to shield.
Clinically Extremely Vulnerable people of varying ages were told Do Not Resuscitate notes were being put on their medical files.
The messaging around shielding and other protective measures was disjointed and mixed, and the general public needed clearer understanding and empathy. Understandably the entire situation had a massive negative effect on mental health, and the vulnerable and extremely vulnerable populations are little better off even now.
A new study out last week in Nature scientific journal has yet more evidence that COVID infection causes lasting brain injury.
351 hospitalised COVID patients with an average age of 54 completed cognitive tests, MRI and blood sampling around a year after infection. ALL performed worse than anticipated in the cognitive tests (memory and logic questions and that kind of thing). Blood tests showed brain injury markers and MRI showed reduced grey matter in the brain. Although there was clear improvement in the recovery phase, after discharge it seems to plateau - meaning any further recovery is incredibly slow, or doesn't happen.
(Do NOT lose hope. My partner's brain recovery after Meningitis was very quick at first, then very slow, but even 7 or 8 years later we were still able to pinpoint specific improvements.)
Previous studies have found, as has this study, that the more severe the COVID, the worse the damage. The better the mental health after illness, the better the recovery.
"The findings suggest immune-mediated brain injury and highlight the need for targeted therapies." (The body does the damage trying to protect itself and beat the COVID, and treatment needs to reflect this.)
Following on from this, a study led by University of Cambridge has used ultra high-resolution scanners, known as 7-Tesla or 7T scanners, to look at the living brain in fine detail that is only usually possible once someone has died.
They studied 30 hospitalised COVID patients, compared to 51 people with no history of infection. They found that weeks after hospitalisation, regions of the brainstem had abnormalities associated with a 'neuroinflammatory' response (brain swelling). These areas included those responsible for breathing control - which can obviously affect shortness of breath and fatigue or tiredness. The patients with most severe effects also showed higher levels of depression and anxiety.
This is yet more visible, measurable proof of lasting brain injury after COVID, or Long COVID. Bittersweet, but it gives us some more to work on as regards treatment.
The UK has launched The Generation Study. In partnership with the NHS, and after an opt-in by parents, the whole genomes of up to 100,000 newborn babies will be sequenced to look for over 200 rare conditions in early childhood. Only treatable conditions are included, so hopefully it will have positive impact for anyone affected.
It's great to see research into the differences made by long-term vision and proactive healthcare. If successful, it could be the future...
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed California's 3rd human H5 bird flu case, and test results are still pending on another two people.
All 3 of California's confirmed cases have been mild, with patients suffering severe conjunctivitis among other symptoms, but not needing to be hospitalised.
As of Wednesday 9th October, 18 human cases of H5 bird flu have been reported in the United States since 2022; 17 of those during 2024.
12 of the 17 have been confirmed as H5N1 - the Avian flu strain affecting US dairy cattle. There 'wasn't enough virus to confirm the N' in the remaining cases.
The CDC reassure the US public:
"The identification of H5 in people with exposure to infected animals is not unexpected and does not change CDC's risk assessment for the general public, which continues to be low."
At latest count, as of yesterday, 300 herds have been confirmed infected across 14 states.
Remember the random Missouri man who got bird flu and no-one knows how? The CDC has had to develop a new test to look for antibodies in the blood of his contacts... hopefully the results will NOT help solve the mystery. If human to human contact is discovered, it will be a first. Fingers crossed it isn't, and he was just unlucky (bird flu can spread through bird poop).
Over 16 million people in the UK are eligible for an NHS Health Check, but only around 40% of those invited book one. This is especially true for men. The UK Government have rolled out workplace health checks for over 130,000 people - none of whom will be able to use the excuse "I haven't got time to go to the doctor"...
"Of the 36 confirmed Marburg cases in Rwanda so far, 29 are healthcare workers, says Rwanda's minister of health Sabin Nsanzimana.
Good reminder that nurses and doctors are on the frontlines every day all over the world - and often without access to adequate protection."
Science Journalist Kai Kupferschmidt earlier this week.
Latest figures released today by WHO show that the outbreak has now risen to 58 cases and 13 losses of life since the first fatality on 8th September. Contact tracing is underway, with over 700 contacts under follow-up. The good news is that 15 people have recovered.
More good news, as of Wednesday, ALL cases are linked to the hospital cluster in Kigali, and there is NO evidence of community transmission.
WHO have classified the Marburg outbreak as a grade 3 emergency, the highest level for a single country outbreak, and explain very succinctly what Marburg is:
"Marburg virus disease is highly virulent and causes haemorrhagic fever, with a fatality ratio of up to 88%. It is in the same family as the virus that causes Ebola virus disease. Illness caused by Marburg virus begins abruptly, with high fever, severe headache and severe malaise. Many patients develop severe haemorrhagic symptoms within seven days. The virus is transmitted to people from fruit bats and spreads among humans through direct contact with the bodily fluids of infected people, surfaces and materials."
Haemorrhagic disease damages the walls of tiny blood vessels, making them leak, and can affect the blood's ability to clot. Patients are severely weakened.
Two travellers, including a medical student who had contact with Marburg patients in Rwanda while wearing PPE, became sick while on a train in Hamburg. Both tested negative, but isolated anyway. It gave everyone a bit of a wobble regarding international spread.
There is currently no licensed vaccination against Marburg. Last weekend the US sent Rwanda 700 doses of an experimental vaccine & doses of a monoclonal antibody treatment. This week another 1,000 vaccine doses have been sent. Vaccination of frontline healthcare workers began on Wednesday.
The Rwandan outbreak offers the chance to trial vaccines that have been in development for years, not only to prevent Marburg, but as therapeutics. That is, you can offer them to people who have been exposed and suspected to have caught Marburg, and hope they work to quickly teach the body what to fight, before the virus has a chance to really start attacking. It isn't always too late - therapeutic vaccines work really well for some other virus, Rabies being a very longstanding example.
These vaccinations have passed safety controls, but obviously you can't purposefully expose or infect people with Marburg to test how well it works. Faced with such a high mortality rate, any level of efficacy is welcome, and what is learned will help more people in the future.
"October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month
Breast Cancer is the most common cancer among women globally and represents approximately a quarter of all cancers that occur in women every year."
The World Health Organisation
Go on people, you know what to do now (and every month). Arms up and cop a feel - get permission first if they aren't yours.
If you are called for breast screening, rest assured it's a 5 minute job and very different from 20 years ago. Shouldn't hurt a bit, and it's not even very uncomfortable (1st hand experience).
Boris Johnson (ex UK Prime Minister) has published his COVID-times memoirs.
In it he recounts how he first thought COVID was caused by unsanitary conditions at the Wuhan market, and despite mounting supporting evidence for that theory, he's now changed his mind and believes it's a lab leak of a man-made virus.
Boris is unhappy that apparently during COVID, people with an agenda to 'bring him down' told on him for his lockdown parties - which were rubbish anyway. The meanies.
Most surprising revelation for me is the news that he genuinely looked into the feasibility of a raid on a Netherlands warehouse, because they had the 5 million vaccine doses we'd ordered and weren't releasing them quickly for export to the UK.
Being Prime Minister was a terrible disappointment to him wasn't it? He had to do live press conferences all the blinking time, the parties were rubbish and it wasn't actually anything like James Bond. (2/10 would not recommend.)
You may remember me covering HPV vaccinations a couple or so years ago, and how I said "we really do have a chance to eradicate cervical cancer. Our granddaughters might never have to worry about it".
The news is good. In fact the news is spectacularly great.
Scotland has detected no cases of cervical cancer in women born between 1988-1996 who were fully vaccinated against HPV between the ages of 12 and 13.
It isn't yet eradicated completely, but the incidence across the UK is so low that it is less 1 per 100,000. As HPV-related malignancies account for 4.5% of all human cancers, this can save the health and the lives of a lot of people.
Vaccinations haven't only changed our lives compared to our great grandparents, they are changing the lives of our children as we watch.
Crikey that was a long one, but hurrah - it's Friday again! That's the weekend and for us a 2 week school holiday. I'm not exactly sure what my 2 weeks will include, except for more unpacking and emptying of containers into my house (bookcases and shoe tidy are high on the list!). I'm also hoping to see at least one of our older kids, so I'll be back in 3 weeks instead of 2. I won't forget my treat (as if getting my books back on shelves isn't exciting enough!), and you shouldn't forget to treat yourself too. We all need something to look forward to, and something special for ourselves. Be kind to you, and look after your own mental health the same as (or better than) your physical health. It was World Mental Health Day this week - a reminder to us all to take time to check in with friends and relatives, and make time to ask "are you doing okay?", and then listen properly to the answer. Simply being there can be enough to make the difference.
See you in November! Until then... Take Time To Talk, Be Your Brave Self And Ask For Help If You Need It, Save The NHS...
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Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus
Images
CMI young people and image
https://x.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1844277004973244755?t=U0j7gYY_tYu0oftc4R86yA&s=09
Hospital admissions and image
https://x.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1844301050033078731?t=WUnZJI0TLQcHto5epmkZbw&s=19
Baby loss certificate image
https://x.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1843928591584899203?t=wGjCOLTtOda9mHsyqrn8hw&s=09
WMHD2024 images
https://x.com/samaritans/status/1844063563519844495?t=b3XVoJN-K5ZDttlaqgdm_g&s=09
https://x.com/MindCharity/status/1844233899104403935?t=llVusF9cj0NNBtsfps7dag&s=19
https://x.com/YoungMindsUK/status/1844275158929797315?t=WaA_nDeL5qBfhNRkbmrW1g&s=19
https://x.com/allontheboard/status/1844273364145406282?t=PYE4-IlkJsIig3nYijH2tA&s=19
https://x.com/theRCN/status/1844273430868165083?t=4HZ_uVLARGTbmO5M5Azgkg&s=19
NHS 111 Image
https://x.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1843573319875940624?t=exaRoK4MAXVjpu6yXJHRHw&s=09
Flu vaccine bookings open image uk nhs
https://x.com/UKHSA/status/1843681046073684059?t=T0SjBmbMJz2KYESlNXTXLg&s=09
Workplace health checks image
https://x.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1840300521971712409?t=y5Ygxvsyad2LN9JSkotXkQ&s=09
Breast cancer month and image
https://x.com/WHO/status/1841096489101136336?t=e7zsC22qfxIqh7ZqfmdChg&s=09
Breast cancer month uk image signs and symptoms
https://x.com/NHSuk/status/1841055774828618065?t=c1pkqqHVo3wq8prdIfLtcw&s=19
Latest stats UK
https://x.com/ONS/status/1843932372393439655?t=tQ_PB9pSglLno9N5jC8HLQ&s=09
https://x.com/chrischirp/status/1844696550510850057?t=wk887RYqFCNXQug6zLEyFg&s=19
Covid inquiry airborne
https://x.com/_CatintheHat/status/1842895616868786395?t=Fcsnpsi8X3MvGJjEpmw9pg&s=09
https://x.com/_CatintheHat/status/1842895853733683531?t=4COw78loSc1FNSRR-OqAIQ&s=19
Dr Ritchie’s session at the Covid Inquiry is available on YouTube here:
MORNING SESSION (from 1:33:00):
AFTERNOON SESSION:
You can also find a full transcript of her testimony here (from text block 62):
covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/upl… module 3 16th September
https://x.com/_CatintheHat/status/1836392922213646556?t=JRyntEql5dxlmiUtnmzZZQ&s=19
Covid inquiry CV, CEV
https://x.com/cathy_finnis/status/1844150891298910507?t=bnQHbvGT186XzFEIYRJibg&s=19
Covid brain
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03309-8
Brainstem Long COVID
Human H5N1
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1844118010296140245?t=mbuOZOSnhkJlSwVpuSjcMg&s=09
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/s1009-human-case-bird-flu.html
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1841584781089505678?t=eufyVinmzCr0L1D4Su0WiQ&s=09
https://www.statnews.com/2024/10/02/missouri-bird-flu-virus-transmission-concerns/
Avian flu latest stats
Workplace health checks
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-130000-people-to-benefit-from-life-saving-health-checks
Genomics study UK
https://x.com/GenomicsEngland/status/1841757680274141292?t=271XKhg_IaSsUKeYfU5GvQ&s=09
Boris Johnson memoir
we considered ‘aquatic raid’ on Netherlands to seize Covid vaccine | Coronavirus | The Guardian
Also changs mind on covid origins
And people were lying to make him look bad
HPV
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9729511/
https://x.com/johnthejack/status/1839750751414886514?t=nNEw1QziQaW_QXQv_Gcikw&s=09
https://www.statnews.com/2024/01/25/hpv-vaccine-prevent-cervical-cancer-cervarix-gardasil-study/
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hpv-vaccination-programme
https://academic.oup.com/jnci/article-abstract/116/6/857/7577291#no-access-message
Marburg
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/viral-hemorrhagic-fevers/symptoms-causes/syc-20351260
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1840159103899054551?t=hcAGHxttgkBIyrMueJrXQQ&s=09
https://www.statnews.com/2024/09/30/marburg-virus-outbreak-rwanda-concern-about-spread/
https://x.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1841834323969819028?t=kWJ9AsHhddPK1xZ1lXVuTA&s=09
Therapeutic vaccinations
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9729511/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/therapeutic-vaccine
German students
https://x.com/COVID19_disease/status/1841504444103451102?t=Z0D18jpfUyX-LBR9hlOCNw&s=19
No travel or trade restrictions
https://x.com/kakape/status/1841841914326188465?t=6mwQbNHClIA_dxtWFTYxnQ&s=19
Quote Kai Kupferschmidt
https://x.com/kakape/status/1841836947754434635?t=lm1lvDvqk93Y9CxTTPJhdA&s=19
WHO health briefing Thursday week1
https://x.com/WHO/status/1841839731488829954?t=hbOraseIpXLsgTXKvPm-8A&s=19
https://x.com/kakape/status/1843166225658155360?t=EOuubRa5g9uP06RDpLsn6w&s=09
https://x.com/RwandaHealth
"Many remember and appreciate Brussels Airlines for maintaining flights to Sierra Leone and Liberia, when all other European carriers stopped because of Ebola in 2014."
https://x.com/InfectiousDz/status/1843057083484450891?t=BvlKHpkiUZMUVKed2qWvjw&s=19
US vaccinations
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1842321560385831000?t=yc50_hGvtQV2gRYSUGzoZA&s=19
https://www.statnews.com/2024/10/04/marburg-virus-rwanda-outbreak-vaccines-therapeutics/
This will make 1,700 doses sent.
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1844000493502373975?t=31djSuNFgUaIvlf8DhJ4xA&s=19
Marburg wednesday update - 0 cases and note on all cases connected - and more vaccine
https://x.com/kakape/status/1844114618144391230?t=ulY9i9cCa9ZlSMljPiPVRg&s=09
Latest Marburg update from WHO, 11th October
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON539
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