COVID-19 Coronavirus and other virus UK and World News Update 15th November 2024
10,644 deaths were registered in England and Wales, week ending 1 November 2024 (Week 44):
· 13.3% lower than the expected number (1,634 fewer deaths)
· 13.8% involved influenza or pneumonia (1,469 deaths)
· 2.5% involved COVID19 (262 deaths)
Office for National Statistics
The UK HSA have started publishing weekly virus watch reports for England. We currently have lots of RSV, especially in children under 5. COVID and flu are pretty stable.
During the UK Autumn budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced significant extra money for the NHS - £25.7 BILLION over the next 2 years.
It includes:
- funding to reduce waiting times by supporting the NHS to deliver an extra 40,000 elective appointments a week. This is part of the "plan to make sure patients wait no longer than 18 weeks from their referral to getting treatment". (Which would be utterly amazing if it ever happens.)
- £1.5 billion to fund new surgical hubs which will help build capacity for over 30,000 additional procedures, and more than 1.25 million additional diagnostic tests (which use CT or MRI scanners)
- £70 million to invest in new radiotherapy machines to improve cancer treatment
- Over £2 billion for NHS technology and digital improvements to increase productivity and save staff time
- Over £600 million increase in local government spending to support social care
- £26 million to open new mental health crisis centres
"Looking beyond this Budget, the government will publish a 10-year health plan for the NHS in spring 2025. This will set out the long-term vision for fixing the NHS."
Well that all sounds incredibly promising... as long as they can get, and keep, the staff to deliver it.
The UK NHS is doing really well. It's got a long way to go, but improving, despite record demand. Congratulations (and thank you) to all involved:
- Overall waiting lists down by 70,000 in September from 7.64 million to 7.57 million
- Individual patients waiting down by 77,000 from 6.42 million to 6.34 million
- 2.36 million A&E attendances last month, 6% more than the previous busiest October
- Ambulance teams responded to a record 84,108 of the most serious category 1 incidents, up more than a third (37%) on the same period pre pandemic (61,561 in Oct 2019).
- People waiting over a year for elective treatment, down 33,321 in September to 249,343. (This is a reduction of over 140,000 since September 2023.)
"Measles cases are on the rise globally.
More than 10 million people globally were infected with measles in 2023, a 20% increase from the previous year.
Low vaccination rates are driving the surge in cases."
The World Health Organisation (WHO) in conjunction with the US CDC.
Rupert Lowe of Reform UK asked the UK Government some very sensible questions (freedom of information requests) regarding PPE purchased during COVID, and got his answers this week from Karin Smyth, Minister of State in the Department of Health and Social Care (you might want to sit down before you read this):
"As of the end of September 2024, approximately 1,049,700 pallets, or 23%, of personal protective equipment (PPE) has been recycled through energy from waste and recycling. The original cost to purchase was £8.644 billion, and all stock categorised as excess has no residual market value.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the total cost of storing PPE in China was £60.6 million. PPE has not been stored outside of the United Kingdom since June 2023."
We were robbed, and then they burnt it...
The UK JCVI (Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation) have published details of upcoming COVID vaccinations.
Spring 2025 will be the last time they use a specific COVID method for choosing, from Autumn 2025 they'll use standard cost-effectiveness assessment.
In Spring 2025 they advise those offered COVID vaccinations will be:
- adults aged 75 years and over
- residents in a care home for older adults
- individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed
In Autumn 2025 and Spring 2026 their advice remains the same.
Critics are pointing out that when they are assessing the cost, they are really only taking into account adults, and deaths, and are ignoring the cost of Long COVID and ongoing health problems over time.
Over the last couple of months Christina Pagel has done a lot of research into babies and COVID. While they are less likely to die, infants up to 6 months are far more likely to end up in hospital, and intensive care, than even people over 90. Vaccination during pregnancy will help protect your baby, but the UK have decided they will be dropping this going forward.
A new paper published in JAMA has again shown a notable link between COVID infection and long-term risk for autoimmune and autoinflammatory diseases.
Researchers looked at more than 3 million people with confirmed COVID-19 from 8th October 2020 to the end of 2022, compared to over 3 million people who had their health checked in 2018.
There was around a 9%-60% increase in a huge list of conditions: alopecia areata, alopecia totalis, vitiligo, Behçet disease, Crohns disease, ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, Sjögren syndrome, ankylosing spondylitis, and bullous pemphigoid.
As usual the risk was greater if you were more ill when you had COVID, weren't vaccinated, and/or were infected back in the earlier Delta variant time. Males and females had higher risk for some different conditions, as did varying age groups (over or under 40).
This actually mirrors a report released just over a year ago by different South Korean researchers - double checking is never wasted time.
A new study has shown a link between COVID infection during pregnancy and an increase in neurodevelopmental disorders. Previous studies have suggested it may double the chances (measured at 12 months) - which were small to begin with, so please don't panic.
Sadly I cannot find a free link to this paywalled study, so I can't tell you what their results are, but it isn't all dark news. The researchers state "10 drugs were identified as potential therapeutic candidates". So it is what we already knew, but with a bit more hope attached.
The UK COVID Inquiry continues, and Dame Jenny Harries gave evidence last week. She was asked about the statement put out in August 2020 on schools and childcare reopening, where we were told 'very few, if any, children or teenagers will come to long term harm from COVID due solely to attending school'. Long term effects (Long COVID) were not taken into account, despite it being a blindingly obvious consideration by that point. When asked when parents were warned, she said 'there's a lot we don't know' and then talked about COVID mostly affecting elderly people.
Ermmm, so never then?
Rosemary Gallagher of the Royal College of Nurses (RCN) said regarding Long COVID:
“RCN is certainly calling very clearly for it to be recognised as an occupational disease.
That will allow nurses who acquired COVID in the workplace to receive financial & physical support they need long term."
Really, it's the least we can do. If you caught it at work, we should look after you.
This week Amanda Pritchard (NHS England’s chief operating officer from 2019 until August 2021) told the inquiry that she requested an extra 10,000 permanent staffed hospital beds in July 2020 and was turned down by the Treasury.
The beds and staff were requested to cut waiting lists for planned care, and build resilience heading into Winter. Instead she was informed the Government wanted to make more use of Nightingale hospitals and private healthcare. She commented that the waiting lists would be very different now if the request had been granted.
The UK over the past 2 weeks has detected Mpox Clade 1b (the dangerous variety) in 4 people. They are all from the same household and were all isolating from the time the first person, who had recently travelled to African countries where Mpox is causing issue, became ill.
Any contacts are being monitored, but risk to the wider public is deemed low, especially now that 2 weeks have elapsed since the first case was detected (and 8 days since the 4th).
Donald Trump, who isn't quite US President yet, has appointed his new bezzie Elon Musk as head of some made up department named after Musk's bitcoin business. Nothing shady there. Musk will be ripping apart Government institutions in the name of slimlining and efficiency. The US CDC is very likely to take a big hit.
Trump also intends to appoint Robert F Kennedy Jr as Secretary of Health and Human Services. Erm... oh boy. Incredulous scientists the world over are still lifting their jaws from the floor.
Sooooo, for context. Here are some of the wilder claims RFK Jr has made - NONE have any scientific basis, so feel free to laugh, or cry, but don't believe them:
- AIDS isn't caused by HIV
- COVID targets certain races and gives others immunity
- Wi-Fi causes "leaky brain", which leads to cancer
- School shootings are caused by antidepressants
- Flouride in tap water is industrial waste which causes bone fractures and a host of other things
- Chemicals in tap water can make children transgender
- Vaccines are more dangerous than the diseases they protect you against
Well, that's all just put 'injecting UV light' right down the list of stupid. Thank goodness the USA isn't at risk of a massive outbreak of an infectious disease eh...
Update on H5N1 in US Cattle:
The latest stats show that in the last 30 days there were another 186 confirmed infections across 3 states, for a pretty huge total of 508 confirmed herds affected across 15 states (this amounts to many, many thousand head of cattle).
Update on H5N1 in US pigs:
Two weeks ago a pig on a backyard farm tested positive, and the USDA have given us an update showing a second pig tested positve and the remaining 3 others tested negative. The variant is from wild birds, NOT the same variant affecting US dairy cattle, and it is likely both pigs were exposed and infected by wild birds at the same time, as were the farmed poultry who were infected at the same location. Sadly the virus was too degraded to be able to fully sequence (find out the family tree).
Update on H5N1 in other US livestock:
Still only 1 herd of alpaca have been affected.
A teenager from British Columbia has been diagnosed as Canada's 1st human case of H5N1 HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza), and only their 2nd known person with bird flu ever (the first was a person in 2014 who had been to China). The young person is very ill, contacts are being tested and efforts are underway to try and work out how they caught it. For anyone asking, this teenager had no underlying health conditions and was fit and healthy prior to infection.
The variant is NOT the one infecting US dairy herds, it's the wild bird variant. The young person had no known contact with birds or farms, and a sick dog has tested negative. They became ill with conjunctivitis and a cough, first went to hospital on 2nd Nov, were admitted on 8th struggling to breathe, and are now critically ill in intensive care.
I wish them the very best.
Canada aren't sitting quietly on this, and wastewater testing is being arranged for higher risk communities in the Ontario region. Canada has also been testing cows milk for traces of HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) including H5N1, for the last 6 months and none has been detected to date.
To see if unknown human H5N1 infection is an issue, the US CDC tested 115 dairy workers exposed to H5N1 infected cattle, and found evidence of a recent infection in 8 of them - an infection rate of 7% - suggesting many more could have been infected without realising. When questioned 4 of the 8 remembered feeling ill with mild symptoms, and 3 reported they'd had conjunctivitis.
Each human infection risks mutations and an epidemic, or a pandemic, so in response to the findings the CDC will increase testing of exposed farm workers, and recommends all farm workers exposed to H5N1-infected animals get tested. High risk jobs appear to be milking and cleaning, so they recommend PPE including safety goggles and a respirator.
To date during 2024, a total of 46 people in the US have been confirmed as having contracted Avian Flu - 25 from cattle, 20 from poultry and 1 unknown.
H5N1 Avian Flu isn't only infecting US dairy workers and 1 child in Canada, people around the world are being infected by farmed and wild birds. This is usually the occasional individual, but shouldn't be forgotten. It is more worrying in countries with less access to medical care and testing, where we may only see the tip of the iceberg.
Of note is Cambodia. For almost 10 years they had no known human infections, but between February 2023 and August 2024, 16 people tested positive for "A/H5 clade 2.3.2.1c viruses" (H5N1 avian flu).
14 of those cases (from October 2023 - end of August 2024) "involved a novel reassortant A/H5N1 virus with gene segments from both clade 2.3.2.1c and clade 2.3.4.4b viruses." 6 of those 14 people died.
This new hybrid variant continued to mutate, as they do, and since February 2024 shows 2 extra amino acids, which suggest it may be more easily caught by mammals.
It is vital for the whole world that we keep an eye, and a lid, on infections everywhere.
While a few dairy farmers are being randomly tested for H5N1, hardly anyone else in the world is. If Avian Flu does manage human to human spread, or mass infection of humans, and it occurs during flu season, general hospitals and local labs will not necessarily have the ability to distinguish it from a common human flu (Influenza A). Without a facility such as wastewater testing, it could easily be some time before anyone realises what has happened.
More importantly, flu season in the Northern hemisphere is coming, and if someone catches both bird flu and human flu at the same time, we have a chance that they might combine and become a new strain of flu capable of infecting humans far more easily. The more people who catch bird flu, the more chances of this happening. We roll that dice every time.
People are bored and frustrated by pandemics. COVID has jaded everyone. No-one is leaping to prevent this in the way they might if it was 2019, and the upcoming US Government are very much an unknown.
Get your flu jab please, especially if you work in farming in the USA, or work anywhere with birds.
Health Service Executive Ireland have decided not to mince their words. Thank you, thank you. We all know it, but they are now warning on social media that you have a higher risk of blood clots if you have had COVID in the last few months, and are also stating on their website:
"COVID-19 may increase your risk of a blood clot in your leg, lungs or both.
Blood clots are more common in people with COVID-19 who have more severe symptoms and who are being treated in hospital."
Honesty without a sugar-coating.
There is an opinion piece in the British Medical Journal this week by Professors Martin McKee, Christina Pagel and Kent Buse on the weaponisation of disinformation in the presidential campaign and why it matters for all of us.
"If you control enough of the information ecosystem, truth no longer matters."
You have freedom of choice, but if all you see (over and over) is disinformation, it is uninformed choice.
The authors are scientists, and present evidence to back up all of their claims. They show that algorithms on social media prefer anything controversial, because it means more comments and more views, and more advertising revenue for the site and often the person saying it - who doesn’t care about you.
Disinformation and misinformation led to "reduced vaccine uptake, promoted ineffective treatments, and encouraged attacks on health workers".
Fact-checkers can't move quick enough to stop the lies before they're spread around the globe, and in a world where moderators and safeguarding have been removed, the most scandalous and salacious headlines will always win the biggest audiences.
Disinformation has far reaching implications for society, including your health. Just because someone wrote it down, doesn't make it the truth. Question everything, including this. (As always, all of the source links for everything in this round up are on an identical post on my website.)
We'll end with some good news, and Australia are still on track to eliminate cervical cancer by 2035. I've spoken before about Scotland's fabulous decrease, but not Australia's. Australia began HPV vaccinations in 2007, and by last year had reduced the infection rate by 92%. Human Papilloma Virus causes around 90% of cervical cancers, as well as some other cancers.
They have also managed to get more woman tested than most developed countries, by introducing self-testing. Around 27% of tests are now done at home by the woman herself. Early detection improves survival rates massively - saving even more lives. Nice one.
It's the weekend - huzzah! It was my birthday yesterday, so my weekend is mainly going to be spent in my pyjamas building my new Santa's Post Office LEGO set, possibly with an Irish Cream or 2 in hand. I hope you are going to do something nice for yourself. Take time for you, look after your mental health and forget about the wider world for a while. It's been a stressful, politically-heavy couple of weeks, and we all need a regular break to recharge our batteries. Without mental health there is no health. Spoil yourself, you've earnt it.
Back in 2 weeks. Until then... Stay Warm, Ventilate Rooms Often, Save The NHS...
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Sources
Image of Trumps RFK Jr appointment
https://x.com/jim_reed/status/1857174153217839399?t=X6cuXWvrfTBtt3SiKPM7Zg&s=09
Measles and image
https://x.com/WHO/status/1857128727399817271?t=SC7Wd2vV6TvzJHktB_rIkw&s=09
Norovirus with image UK HSA
https://x.com/UKHSA/status/1853813068465123735?t=luw2Ff9FIKbAW009j51qWQ&s=09
Diabetes image
https://x.com/WHO/status/1857045407643148587?t=ym3nWcM07vNkgf-sA4XCOQ&s=09
UK HSA viris watch infographic
https://x.com/UKHSA/status/1857400162827530419?t=Pt5dA6sD2xNFLd97zjFF6Q&s=19
Latest England and Wales stats
https://x.com/ONS/status/1856633949566509463?t=kk-vKbHSvB839ZEh3ZdV-g&s=09
Uk HSA virus watch
Uk budget
Nhs stats sept/oct 2024
JCVI
https://bsky.app/profile/chrischirp.bsky.social/post/3laujjdfagc2p
PPE freedom of information requests
https://x.com/RussellScott1/status/1856381360962732276?t=ttmCWqW4lMvKTOucvfPmNA&s=09
More common after COVID - autoimmune & autoinflammatory diseases
https://x.com/vipintukur/status/1854529106550931928?t=p6zz8gkEiWukPOjGv459Ow&s=09
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2810259
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2023-10-covid-odds-immune-disorders-crohn.html
COVID in pregnancy
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41380-024-02822-z
https://x.com/1goodtern/status/1855701965717602337?t=fAvJ63vosA_eoEU7y0lPzw&s=09
COVID Inquiry
10,000 beds
We never said it wasnt airborne
https://x.com/DRTomlinsonEP/status/1854229759578038757?t=PTANYkmQtNhlCGYoRnkHrQ&s=19
Jenny Harries COVID Inquiry.
https://x.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1855331237428117835?t=7qSGZW9bVLz1p8U4wDZKBQ&s=09
https://x.com/drclairetaylor/status/1854598566481989638?t=THjV7Yq5KCv7DRrv_gonRA&s=09
Long COVID Nurses
https://x.com/long_covid/status/1853465263238242336?t=38Le57gGDLFQLttL0hgcvQ&s=09
Mpox UK
Trump and RFK Jr
https://bsky.app/profile/chrischirp.bsky.social/post/3lawtzd5gjs2f
https://bsky.app/profile/luckytran.bsky.social/post/3lawrzlopck22
https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1852812012478398923
Angie Rasmussen thread
https://x.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1855905699303133476?t=LNlZLw3fXQisgp2-3sMyMg&s=19
Unknown infections in dairy workers
https://www.science.org/content/article/many-human-infections-cow-flu-are-going-undetected
2014 bird flu canada
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/fatal-h5n1-case-canada-north-americas-first?s=09
Current H5N1 Canada
https://x.com/BNOFeed/status/1855405389359223004?t=ORTft_qq0uAcVIsLy_2yxw&s=19
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/wastewater-testing-avian-influenza-ontario-communities
https://x.com/BNOFeed/status/1856451663596249336?t=l3njr4679Y3YjCXnbMy7yQ&s=19
Bonnie Henry update on teenager
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1856793126830215495?t=hGsks0nhgQpSXoiE1lspVw&s=09
Bird flu US farmed cattle
Pigs
Bird flu humans
Cambodia H5N1
https://x.com/outbreakupdates/status/1854164715489931721?t=p2whBxMl2kFNwtcfZy5QDg&s=09
Disinformation
https://bsky.app/profile/chrischirp.bsky.social/post/3las4mjgbdc2s
Honest reporting HSE Ireland
https://x.com/HSELive/status/1855640056968692093?t=AlW2xqZ_cfiOe5kusAVhvg&s=19
Australia HPV
https://www.cancercouncil.com.au/research-pt/eliminating-cervical-cancer-in-australia-by-2035/
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