COVID-19 Coronavirus, HPAI H5N1 Avian Flu and other virus UK and World News Update 7th February 2025
"NHS England says more patients in hospitals last week than any other stage this winter– 96% of adult beds were occupied. 961 norovirus cases, up 7% on the week before and 69% higher than same time last year.
Nearly 13,800 in hospital even though medically fit to be discharged."
BBC Health Correspondent Hugh Pym
Norovirus is completely preventable and only 1 in 160 cases end up in a hospital bed - so it's likely more than 153,700 people in England currently have it.
Norovirus is not only bad in the UK - the US has also doubled last years peak. We test more people nowadays, but "the emergence of an unusual norovirus genotype" (GII. 17) seems to blame.
Remember hand gel doesn't get through the thick fatty shell of Norovirus - kill it by washing with good old-fashioned soap.
The UKs low rate of deaths couldn't last forever - w/e 17th Jan 0.2% higher than expected (29 people).
Flu has been bad this Winter - over 1 in every 5 people (20.2%) who died in the week ending 17th Jan were lost early to flu or pneumonia (2,962 deaths).
0.9% of deaths involved COVID (130 deaths)
Human Metapneumovirus (hMPV), the respiratory virus which (with flu) has put a strain on hospitals in China, is on the rise in the UK.
This is a known virus similar to Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV). It causes cold-like symptoms which in rare cases lead to bronchitis or pneumonia, and always has a wave in Winter. The World Health Organisation say they aren't seeing any great leap in cases or reason for alarm. The UK Health Security Agency (HSA) say the same, but remind us it's wise to wear a mask and avoid contact with vulnerable people if you have any respiratory illness. (Stay home if you're ill!)
The NHS has published the 2 year strategy for the NHS in England, beginning the 10 year plan to fix the NHS.
Amanda Pritchard, Chief Executive of NHS England:
"...if we get this right, we know we will have built an NHS fit for the future."
"In line with the Government Mandate, the 2025/26 priorities and operational planning guidance sets out a focused, smaller number of national priorities for 2025/26 with an emphasis on improving access to timely care for patients, increasing productivity and living within allocated budgets, and driving reform. To support this, systems will have greater control and flexibility over how they use local funding to best meet the needs of their local population."
The national priorities to improve patient outcomes in 2025/26 are:
- reduce waiting time for elective care. 18 week waits down to 65% by March 2026. Cancer 62-day and 28-day Faster Diagnosis Standard (FDS) to 75% and 80% respectively by March 2026.
- improve A&E waiting times and ambulance response times, minimum of 78% of patients seen within 4 hours by March 2026. Category 2 response times average maximum 30 minutes across 2025/26
- improve patient experience, access to general practice and urgent dental care, providing 700,000 additional urgent dental appointments
- improve patient flow through mental health crisis and acute pathways, reducing average length of stay in adult acute beds, and improve access to children and young people’s (0-25) mental health services, with 345,000 additional patients compared to 2019.
It's like a wishlist, and I honestly hope they achieve it, but I think staff morale and retention needs addressing to have any hope of improvement. 3 people cannot do the work of 5 forever - and why should they?
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has confirmed a human infection with Avian Influenza A - HPAI H5N1 in the West Midlands. The patient is a farmworker exposed to infected poultry, and although well, has been admitted to "a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID) unit".
The birds were infected with the DI.2 genotype, which is different to strains circulating among mammals and birds in the US, but is circulating in the UK. Close contacts have been offered antiviral treatment.
Flu levels are really high in the US, with positivity rates higher than the worst of the 2022/2023 season. There are many word-of-mouth reports of hospitals and emergency departments full of patients with flu-like illness, and all the signs suggest it has not yet peaked.
There are some unconfirmed rumours that people are testing positive for H5N1 (avian flu), but these are just rumours. Interestingly though, and quite worrying, despite all Health and Human Services departments ceasing most external communications, the CDC have issued advice that any flu is subtyped within 24 hours to check which type it is - i.e. what is going on? Is it bird flu?
Nothing to see here, standard procedure, move along...
12 new mpox vaccination sites have opened across England, improving access for those at higher risk of infection.
2 new cases of clade Ib mpox have been detected in England, bringing the total to 9 (the first was in October 2024, with 4 since the start of 2025). Both new patients have recently returned from Uganda and have no links to the previous cases. Close contacts are being followed up and will be offered testing and vaccination where it seems prudent.
On January 20th President Donald Trump ordered a 90-day freeze on foreign assistance. This caused mass confusion. Programs were cancelled or put on hold and workers have no idea if they'll ever be allowed back to work. USAID is a big target, workers were locked out of their headquarters in Washington and two senior security officials who tried to block members of Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency” (DOGE) from accessing sensitive data were told to leave (as were around 100 other employees).
"USAID, run by a bunch of radical lunatics."
Donald Trump
"Did you know that USAID, using YOUR tax dollars, funded bioweapon research, including COVID-19, that killed millions of people?"
Elon Musk
Ermmm... USAID is the United States Agency for International Development. It isn't a bioweapon arm of the military, it's primarily responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance - child health, AIDS/HIV treatment and prevention, contraception, disaster relief, disease response, poverty relief and long term 'socioeconomic development' (education, water supplies, vaccinations etc).
USAID have supported research into potential threats (when authorised from higher Government), but if you have a grain of common sense, you will understand that the US funds research into any potential threat they can find, from fungus to virus to heatstroke (for good cure-type reasons and bad warfare-type reasons). Scientists have forever been collecting samples of Coronaviruses, molds, bacteria etc. from swamps, bat caves and monkey colonies. There is no evidence COVID-19 was ever studied before 2020, and you can follow bits of family tree from other collected wild Coronaviruses and see how easily it might have evolved in the wild.
USAID budget for 2025 was $22.58 billion ($44billion in 2024).
By Wednesday of this week Elon Musk said USAID was "beyond repair". Donald Trump confirmed USAID will be shut down. In the meantime Secretary of State Marco Rubio has declared himself head and will oversee the demolition.
More than 15,000 people signed a petition calling for USAID workers to be allowed back to work, but sadly I don't think it's going to help.
Two AIDS vaccine trials involving 8 African countries, which were all ready to go (staff trained, vaccines in the fridges, all paperwork completed) and about to commence in South Africa, Kenya and Uganda have been put on hold due to the freeze, and possible withdrawal, of USAID funding. A study lead is quoted in Stat News: “It would be unethical to start a study that you can’t guarantee you can continue.”
All American USAID staff have been ordered to go home within 30 days.
This is just 1 overseas study funded by USAID and there are many (MANY). The Stat news article gives other examples of affected research - HIV, kidney disease, malaria, TB, the list is extensive.
Trump has ordered funding pause or cease for a lot of things he deems irrelevant, woke or unnecessary.
He signed Executive Orders withdrawing the United States from various United Nations bodies, at times claiming funding is excessive and they support terrorist regimes:
- UNHCR (UN High Commission for Refugees), ending any funding or support.
- UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East).
- UNHRC (UN Human Rights Council)
(The US is also likely to pull out of UNESCO - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization - and other United Nations organisations.)
- PEPFAR (President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, created by George W Bush) was ordered to cease distribution of HIV treatments in South Africa and 53 other countries while they wait for decisions on the future. This sudden stop, as with a sudden stop to any virus treatment, risks not only illness and death to millions of people, but also treatment-resistant HIV developing. It isn't sensible and it's barbaric, especially on such a huge scale.
If someone wants to show they've saved a fortune and are short-sighted and uncaring enough to pull the plug on all foreign aid and development, they do so at their own peril. International travel has made our world very small. War and natural disaster don't book in advance, you don't know when you might need help yourself, and the next deadly pathogen is always just a flight away...
Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada (fuel 10%) and Mexico, claiming they aren't doing enough to stop illegal immigration and Fentanyl imports. He also imposed 10% tariffs on China. The tariffs on Mexico and Canada were put on hold for 1 month after discussions.
Trump's 10% tariff on Chinese goods includes medicines, because despite paying more for prescription drugs in the US than anywhere else in the world, it wasn't enough. Around half the medicines prescribed in the US are imported, as are about 80% of all active pharmaceutical ingredients needed to make drugs within the US.
Wanting people to buy goods manufactured in their home country is fine, but you have to already be able to make them...
Closer to his home (within the USA), Donald Trump has also been causing waves (tsunami-sized). Following on from last report about Trump's first days in US office, we still are not getting very many 'external communications from federal health agencies', and staff at the US CDC were ordered to stop working with the World Health Organisation (WHO) immediately - no 1 year withdrawal.
Trump’s next victim on the block was DEI - Diversity, Equity and Inclusion. He ordered all federal DEI departments shut down immediately, and with two more executive orders, ended all DEI programs in the federal government and cancelled DEI programs in the US Military.
Confused staff were offered 8 months pay to go home and find alternative work.
DEI content is being removed from Government websites, including studies, data and articles. Not only is this targeting disability, LGBTQ+ and minority race, even a Christian employee group designed to promote religious diversity has been shut down.
Trump went on to pause all funding for HHS - US Department of Health And Human Services. Scientists found themselves en route to conferences and meetings they then weren't expected and/or authorised to attend, or which were cancelled on the day.
The US National Institutes of Health have had their funding frozen - including grants that had already been offered. They are the medical research agency, responsible for studying known and potential threats to health, creating treatments and therapies, cures and vaccines to "enhance health, lengthen life, and reduce illness and disability". Ongoing studies and research are now in limbo, and in some cases destroyed. Some staff have had to be put on furlough or let go until it's known whether they'll ever be able to continue.
Donald Trump's possibly rash and very decisive actions also temporarily closed down portals for Medicaid, stopped some meals on wheels for older people, reportedly prevented some social security and SNAP (food stamps) payments, and caused a PR nightmare for press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
Last Friday pages on the US CDC website started to go offline. The scientific community panicked, archiving whatever they could.
Government ordered amendments included removing text relating to DEI (Diversity, Equality and Inclusion), and meeting the terms of Executive Order 14168 - "Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government".
To comply with 14168 web authors were expected to (to quote The Atlantic) "target and replace, at a minimum, several “suggested keywords”—including “pregnant people, transgender, binary, non-binary, gender, assigned at birth, binary [sic], non-binary [sic], cisgender, queer, gender identity, gender minority, anything with pronouns”".
By this Wednesday it was clear many studies, reports and scientific papers were missing, and databanks still unusable. Missing pages and sections can relate to reproductive health and contraception, HIV and sexual health, indigenous people's health, transgender and LGBTQ+ populations and loads more.
The US Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) seems to have been gone for around a week, and if I try to access it now, I end up in a loop of dead links and redirects, which just makes the page flash and doesn't take you anywhere.
The YRBSS began in 1991 and "measures health-related behaviors and experiences that can lead to death and disability among youth and adults. Results help monitor health trends, identify emerging issues, and plan and evaluate programs that can help improve adolescent health". It's a massive ongoing study which is incredibly valuable to schools, colleges, local health providers and all agencies working with young people.
Archivists have downloaded the entire CDC website as it was before the purge, so everything should still be available, if you know where to look. Links to two CDC archives and alternative sources are in the sources below this report.
It isn’t only the CDC website which has been scrubbed. The U.S. Department of Education’s Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) website has been amended, and authors are furious that well-researched articles and studies have had words including "marginalized", "equity", and "diversity" removed, with no record of the edits and changes.
Climate Change is being wiped from US Government websites again, only this time with a lot more confidence.
Staff from Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency” (DOGE) entered the headquarters of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), looking to access IT systems. The website was taken down for a while and then reappeared with edits and omissions. The USDA (US Department for Agriculture) website was also amended, and there are reports that some climate change mentions have been deleted and research has not reappeared. I certainly managed to find a lot of "You are not authorized to access this page" while searching general terms...
Over 1,100 US Environmental Protection Agency employees working in areas including climate change and reducing air pollution have been warned that their employment could be “immediately” terminated at any time.
Meanwhile the simple act of breathing is killing 7 million people a year due to pollution, the North Pole ice caps are melting at an increasing and record rate, and we can all watch the extreme weather events being caused by climate change every single time we turn on the TV.
Nothing to see here, move along...
Trump has signed an executive order for Government to “recognize two sexes, male and female”. He said they are “not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality.”
Trump fired the leadership at the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, but Attorneys and other remaining staff have pointed out it is illegal to enforce Trump's order, and you can't simply deny that transgender, nonbinary and intersex people in government exist.
"Public-health data are collected with the intention of sussing out which populations most need health interventions; altering those data leaves behind a skewed portrait of reality."
Katherine J Wu, Staff Writer at The Atlantic
A 28th January executive order says “It is the policy of the United States that it will not fund, sponsor, promote, assist or support the so-called ‘transition’ of a child from one sex to another and it will rigorously enforce all laws that prohibit or limit these destructive and life-altering procedures.”
It counts children as anyone under age 19.
As a result medical facilities receiving federal research or education grants have been compelled to stop providing puberty blockers, hormone therapy or surgical procedures to young transgender people.
I don't agree with allowing permanent changes to youngsters either, however at 17 in most US states you can have children, fight for your country, drive a car or go to prison, but since 28th January you are no longer adult enough to make decisions about your own body. If you think those 2 years won't make a difference, that's because you aren't a transgender teenager. Even if you really would dismiss any new young person asking for trans-care, what about young people who are already along those pathways? How can you tell a 17 year old who is 2 years into hormone therapy that they have to just stop taking it and it'll all be fine? You can't, because it won't.
I've spent 5 years repeating that we are all people, and we ALL deserve respect and kindness. Giving people rights and then wiping them away does not make those people not exist. Transgender, queer, non-binary and all possible varieties of genders have ALWAYS existed, and always will, and I will always see every human as equal.
Aside from humanitarian reasons, deleting and amending information has far-reaching effects. If we hadn't been able to study demographics affected by the 2022 Mpox outbreak, we might never have even realised it was now being spread via sexual contact - as that hasn't been the case in the past.
A large study of Veterans Affairs (VA) patients has been published in JAMA. It compared outcomes for non-hospitalised patients who had just tested positive for flu, COVID or RSV (tested for all 3 as they have similar symptoms).
Season 1 - August 2022-March 2023 (68,581 patients)
6,239 (9.1%) had RSV
16,947 (24.7%) had influenza
45 395 (66.2%) had COVID-19
30-day risk of death - COVID-19 (1.0%), influenza (0.7%), RSV (0.7%)
180-day risk of death - COVID-19 (3.1%)
Season 2 - August 2023-March 2024 (72,939 patients)
9748 (13.4%) had RSV
19 242 (26.4%) had influenza
43 949 (60.3%) had COVID-19
30-day risk of death - COVID-19 (0.9%), influenza (0.7%), RSV (0.7%)
180-day risk of death - COVID-19 (2.9%), influenza (0.8%), RSV (0.6%)
Basically, COVID is far more dangerous than RSV or flu in the longer term. The authors note this difference was primarily found in people over age 65 or who were unvaccinated.
There has been an outbreak of an as-yet-unknown disease in DRC (Democratic Republic of the Congo). At least 12 suspected cases of Ebola were reported in the remote Bolamba Health Zone, however tests have proven negative. 8 deaths were recorded in the period from 10th to 22nd January, and further tests have been ordered to work out what exactly is going on.
And in Uganda a 32 year old nurse in the capital Kampala died on 29th January after testing positive for Ebola (Sudan Virus type). They were transferred to multiple health facilities and hospitals before being tested. The nurses wife became ill on 2nd Feb, and there are at least 7 confirmed infected contacts. A total of almost 300 contacts of patients have been identified. The original source of the infection is unknown, and genetic sequencing gives few clues. The closest known relative strain was a sample from a 2012 outbreak 60km away (40 miles) - so it could have been hiding all this time within local animal populations, and/or other people may have had undiagnosed/asymptomatic illness.
In a global first the Ugandan Ministry of Health, WHO, and a large number of international partners (Canada, EU, Africa, CEPI) have almost instantly (3-4 days) launched the first-ever vaccine trial for Sudan Virus Ebola. 2,160 doses of the candidate vaccine are in Kampala (it has already met standards for safety and works in a lab, but not yet tested in a real world outbreak).
Ebola is fairly difficult to catch unless you have close contact with a patient with symptoms, but with a fatality rate of 53% (range: 41% to 100%) for Sudan Virus Ebola, it's horrific for all involved, and a vaccine trial is very welcome. The trial will be 'ring vaccination' - vaccinating all recent contacts in the hopes it encircles any risk and prevents any onward transmission. Ring vaccination has proven incredibly effective in the past, even at large scale, including in finally containing Zaire Ebolavirus after a 2 year (2018-2020) outbreak in DRC, where over 265,000 individuals were vaccinated across nearly 2,000 rings. Fingers crossed the vaccine for Sudan Virus is as effective.
Now for bird flu - specifically HPAI H5N1 (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza strain H5N1). This appears to be something else the US public shouldn't bother themselves about. I'd imagine Mr Trump is very keen to avoid any chance of another pandemic, and the best way to avoid that is to pretend it couldn't ever be possible.
APHIS for last 30 days shows 4 new dairy herds confirmed infected in Nevada, and 34 in California, for an all time cattle herds infected total of 959 in 16 states.
We have bad news I'm sorry to say. Last week and the week before, for the first time in over 60 years, the US CDC did not publish their Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. This Wednesday it was back - but in many ways that was even more worrisome.
As well as the news about the California wildfires there was, according to the New York Times and others who caught it, a table and information relating to spread of HPAI H5N1 bird flu between cats and humans. That was very swiftly deleted.
We know cats catch flu, COVID and occasional other virus from their humans, but only rarely does it pass the other way. The now-missing data confirmed transmission in 2 households - one infected dairy worker to their cat (which sadly died 3 days after showing symptoms), and far more concerningly, an infected cat passed H5N1 to another cat and a human adolescent.
A cat passing bird flu to a human is very important news and it will be disturbing to any cat owner.
Cats don't do so well with bird flu (possibly 70% mortality rate), at least 85 have tested positive, and countless others have without any doubt quietly died on woodland, farmland and simply never been tested or recorded. It is easy for cats to come into with infected wild birds (they're not even hard to catch because they're ill!), bird poop and spilt milk on dairy farms - and don't forget the proven risk from cats eating raw infected meat.
This information being withdrawn is bad. It means the public are not being kept informed about potential known risks to their health and thank you to whoever got this out - even if it was quickly retracted. It may have been deleted in an effort to downplay risk from bird flu, or to prevent panic amongst cat owners. Definitely don't panic, we can take easy steps to reduce risk massively. If you live in or near any area with confirmed or suspected bird flu, keep your cats indoors, don't let any pets roll in bird poop, and wipe your shoes before you enter the house, or have 'outdoor' and 'indoor' shoes. I know I will.
More bad news folks - the Nevada dairy cows have HPAI H5N1 variant D1.1 (the bird and wild animal version).
APHIS:
"This is the first detection of this virus genotype in dairy cattle (all previous detections in dairy cattle have been HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype B3.13). Genotype D1.1 represents the predominant genotype in the North American flyways this past fall and winter and has been identified in wild birds, mammals, and spillovers into domestic poultry."
(Flyways are migratory routes for birds.)
4 Nevada farms are affected, so this isn't being considered an isolated case.
When it comes to human infections, the seriously ill Canadian teen who thankfully survived, and the Louisiana gentleman who died were both infected with D1.1.
All the farmworkers and raw-milk-drinking children who had mild illness were infected with the cattle strain B3.13.
Flu virus has clip together parts, and when 2 flu viruses are in the same place, they can unclip and 'reassort', or merge together.
Cows with D1.1 are a new thing, but we can clearly see B3.13 loves cows and can't be stopped by using all kinds of biosecurity measures.
D1.1 has been seen almost entirely in birds, but B3.13 infects mammals much more readily.
People with D1.1 traditionally get very ill, and mortality is around 50%, whereas people with B3.13 tend to be okay.
What we really don't want is for D1.1 to mix with B3.13, or for D1.1 to mix with human flu - although if it does, it may swap out the part responsible for it's severity.
(Huge thanks to Ph.D. virologist TheSaxonPlan on Reddit for the easily understood 'clip together' analogy and insight. Link in sources)
I say this as a 40 year vegetarian - shoot and burn those Nevada cows right now.
I've no idea where we go from here, but it feels like H5N1 just took another jump up the steps.
The policy lead for CDC's H5N1 response, Professor Erin Abramsohn has abruptly resigned. She didn't mention any of the events of the last 2 weeks in her carefully worded resignation, but she didn't seem happy to leave.
We currently aren't getting any updates on human H5N1 infections nationally in the US. There are unconfirmed rumours of human with H5N1 near Dallas, Fort Worth, but even with local news reporting I see nothing else for the last month or so - fingers crossed that's correct.
There have been a lot of wild bird infections identified (birds are currently migrating), and the number of backyard (48 in January) and commercial (85 in January) flocks infected is up, so bird flu in the US hasn't slowed down. In January alone a massive 23.31 million farmed birds were affected. Egg prices will continue to climb.
Talking of egg prices... White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt held a press conference where she said 'mass killing' of over 100 million chickens by the Biden administration has contributed to a lack of egg supply and skyrocketing prices.
Let me repeat, chickens and bird flu don't get on well. In an outbreak of HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) in a henhouse, you can expect 90-100% of the chickens to catch it and die horribly after succumbing to multi-organ failure, breathing problems, diarrhoea and/or brain damage.
Leaving chickens to their fate is not only cruel, it causes masses more infected dirt (from droppings, bird snot etc) and risks infecting more humans and wild birds or mammals.
HPAI isn't as vicious on ducks and some wild birds. LPAI (Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza) is far less dangerous to all species, and usually accounts for most infections.
The outbreaks we are concerned about right now in the USA, Asia, Europe and elsewhere are HPAI (mostly H5N1 - the variety infecting US dairy cows and humans).
DISEASE is why egg prices are high, not political parties.
If you are looking for even more madness, in an effort to bring down the price of eggs, Nevada has just introduced a new bill to temporarily suspend various rules and regulations related to the sale or transport of eggs. Because having cheap eggs (as promised by Trump) is better than preventing illness, obviously. It's wordy and confusing, but seems to relate to how the chickens are housed, so I think it means they can cram more of them into a barn without cages and still sell the eggs.
Just before Biden left, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services awarded $590 million to Moderna to “accelerate the development of mRNA-based pandemic influenza vaccines” (aka human bird flu vaccines).
The funding will enable Moderna to work on a vaccine that is “well matched to strains currently circulating in cows and birds”. This vaccine has completed phase 1 and 2 testing, and is due to begin phase 3 testing with healthy adults aged 18 and older (as long as funding is not withdrawn or paused).
At least 2 non-human HPAI Avian Influenza vaccine field trials in the Philippines are set to complete before Summer. The companies creating the vaccines are not named, but originate in Hungary and Germany.
Antibody treatment for avian flu has proven effective in non-human primates. Macaques were given antibodies based on a very stable part of avian flu virus which doesn't mutate easily or often, infected 3 days later, and none developed severe respiratory illness. Control animals not given the antibodies were not protected from severe disease and fatality.
Researchers believe it might offer protection for 8 -12 weeks, making it especially useful for frontline healthcare workers. If further trials are successful it should protect against a range of variants, including H5N1.
Talking of variants, the USA has an exciting variant of bird flu for the first time - and it's been found in ducks. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N9 - Eurasian lineage goose/Guangdong clade 2.3.4.4b - has been confirmed in a commercial duck premises in Merced County, CA. The same farm also has cases of HPAI H5N1 (clade 2.3.4.4b).
HPAI H5N9 has previously been seen in China, where it was a reassortment strain originating from H5N1, H7N9, and H9N2 subtypes - a mix of 3. It's currently unknown where the Californian H5N9 originated - if it did indeed fly over from China (unlikely) or if it has recombined identically by coincidence (likely). Ducks are pretty good at surviving avian flu, even HPAI, so they are perfect hosts for strains to mingle and merge.
Bolstered by the decisions of trump, Argentina have withdrawn from the World Health Organisation, and Israel have withdrawn from the UNHCR (UN Human Rights Council).
One of those should have been ejected already anyway...
Public health officials in southwestern Ontario, USA, have declared a measles outbreak. Since October last year there have been 53 epidemiologically-linked cases (26 confirmed, 27 probable), 16 of which were between Jan 16th and 29th (date of last update). A 4th Feb press release warns that a family of 5 people who visited Ontario from Manitoba all took it back home with them.
Measles spreads really easily, with each infected person able to pass it on to an average of 12 to 18 people. The incubation period is 1-3 weeks before symptoms appear, meaning an infected person can have no idea where they caught it or who they could have infected.
Immunisation is 97% effective at preventing infection for life (93% after the first dose).
1 in every 5 people with measles will end up in hospital, 1 in every 1,000 will get brain damage, and 1-3 in every 1,000 will die.
Very sadly all 10 people with suspected or confirmed Marburg in Tanzania have died - 100% CFR (case fatality rate).
In much brighter news, there have been no new cases since 20th Jan. 281 contacts were identified, and 242 have now completed follow up (no symptoms and considered no longer at risk). Fingers crossed for them all, and well done to all of those responsible for containing it so quickly.
Tuberculosis (TB) is having a bit of a resurgence. Cases are up in the UK, USA and worldwide. Last week Kansas City (USA) reported 67 active cases, one of the highest figures on record (and that looks to have spread to Ohio where there is a school case). Last year cases in England increased by 13% compared to 2023 - from 4,850 to 5,480 people.
WHO estimate around 1/4 of the global population will catch TB in their lifetime, but only 5-10% of those people will develop TB disease, have symptoms and become contagious.
Treatment to cure infection or infection with disease is the same - 4 to 6 months of specialist antibiotics. Sadly because of this extended time and people stopping their antibiotics early, we now have antibiotic-resistant strains that are harder to treat.
Never thought I'd mention him again, but here we are. COVID NHS hero Captain Sir Lord Tom Moore of the 100th birthday garden walk must be looking down and tutting wildly.
His family have asked that his name be removed from the now-tainted charity set up in his name when he died. It will be known as the 1189808 Foundation. Catchy.
When the Charities Commission discovered that the £1.4MILLION charity book deal had been kept by Tom's daughter and her husband, they "implored" the couple to "return the funds due" to the charity. They have not. The couple say it's a breach of privacy that the public have been informed of the sum involved. Apparently we shouldn't all be aware what huge thieves they are. Yeah, right.
Associated Press have done a fabulous job checking a letter of support for prospective Head of US Health and Human Services RFK Jr. The letter is headed "Doctors for Robert F. Kennedy Jr." and begins with the words "We, the undersigned physicians"... these "physicians" included a journalist, a certified public accountant, a firefighter/paramedic, a certified health coach, at least 75 nurses, physician’s assistants, over 20 chiropractors and at least 10 doctors sanctioned for misconduct.
Ermmm, yeah...
Nigel Farage has claimed the UK got the COVID vaccine first as a Brexit benefit. Back in 2020 the head of the MHRA, Dr June Raine was very clear that we hadn't actually split from the EU at that point, and "we have been able to authorise the supply of this vaccine using provisions under European law".
Busted Nige....
It is the end! And the weekend - hurrah! I'm leaving early because we're having fake Christmas with 5 of our kids (2 couldn't make it on 25th December). Don't forget to treat yourself, especially if you're in the US or otherwise worried about what will happen next. I'll leave you with this. We are ALL humans. We have weaknesses and we have power. You DO exist, and you have value, and you have already proven you are stronger than you think.
Back in 2 weeks... Happy Febmas!
Look After Your Head, Take Time For YOU, Save The NHS...
Reference pages H5N1
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/hpai-confirmed-cases-livestock
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bird-flu-avian-influenza-latest-situation-in-england
Infectious disease tracker
https://promedmail.org/
Bird flu updates and news
https://www.paho.org/en/news/6-1-2025-paho-launches-interactive-dashboard-monitor-avian-influenza-ah5n1-americas
Moo flu B3.13
Wild bird flu D.1.x
Livestock
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/sara.anne.willette/viz/USHPAIData/HPAIviaUSDA
https://bsky.app/profile/amethystarlight.bsky.social/post/3lcj6vn7w4s2h
Images
Image UK NHS Vaccination
TB image
Image NHS high blood pressure
UK Norovirus image
HPV vaccination UK
https://x.com/UKHSA/status/1886771479599030435?t=fmLV6hNytCLbmtwLr4kRuQ&s=09
UK Latest Stats
HMPV: Virus cases on the rise in UK as doctors issue ‘mask up’ warning | The Independent
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/health/mystery-virus-cases-place-uk-30869044
Norovirus
https://x.com/UKHSA/status/1886688918076108986?t=lyqZzymkQ70HNS-T6UECYA&s=09
US Norovirus doubke last years peak
NHS England stats
https://x.com/BBCHughPym/status/1887448060172566838?t=-XE1q00eRQe3LDmLkgq39Q&s=09
UK mortality
https://x.com/ONS/status/1884555289631785090?t=sDZW48dsRHZ74peukzTlhw&s=09
UK NHS 2 yesr to 10 year plan
https://www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/2025-26-priorities-and-operational-planning-guidance/?s=09
Human case of avian flu detected in England - GOV.UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/human-case-of-avian-flu-detected-in-england
USA FLu positivity higher than at the height of 2022/2023 season
Wastewater w/e 25th Jan
Signs US flu has not yet peaked
CDC insist flu is subtyped withon 24 hours to check which type it is - i.e. is it bird flu.
Mpox UK
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/02/nhs-opens-new-mpox-vaccination-sites-across-england/
Mpox latest England
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/confirmed-cases-of-mpox-clade-ib-in-united-kingdom
USAID
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1886129005759262964?t=9dN-XbyA2KyqKY8UCJrTFQ&s=09
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Agency_for_International_Development
The DEFUSE proposal was submitted to DARPA in 2018 by EcoHealth Alliance, but it was rejected, and the proposed research was never done: https://assets.ctfassets.net/syq3snmxclc9/5OjsrkkXHfuHps6Lek1MO0/5e7a0d86d5d67e8d153555400d9dcd17/defuse-project-rejection-by-darpa.pdf
https://www.mintpressnews.com/lab-leak-gain-function-media-myths-swirling-around-wuhan-institute/278555/
https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/2024/04/ecohealth-alliance-response-to-the-april-9-2024-article-the-great-covid-cover-up-shocking-truth-about-wuhan-and-15-federal-agencies
While SARS-CoV-2 may have escaped from a lab, the virus does not appear to be genetically modified https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2211107119
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00705-020-04750-z https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/03/who-deeply-frustrated-by-lack-of-us-transparency-on-covid-origin-data/
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8337
USAID standoff
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/02/usaid-officials-put-on-leave-musk-doge
Musk says Trump has agreed to shut down USAID
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/02/musk-usaid-time-00201987
Marco Rubio declares himself head of USAid as workers locked out of office
USAID stoppage is Tectonic
TRUMP WITHDRAWS US FROM:
UN Bodies
https://x.com/stillgray/status/1886524314591076693?t=oA3DunqFGYfzca6nzzVREQ&s=09
Trump Administration Halts H.I.V. Drug Distribution in Poor Countries - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/us/politics/trump-hiv-aids-pepfar.html
WHO statement on potential global threat to people living with HIV
Fentanyl and tariffs
https://www.cato.org/blog/fentanyl-smuggled-us-citizens-us-citizens-not-asylum-seekers
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/01/trump-tariffs-explainer-mexico-canada-china
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-trudeau-announces-counter-tariffs-2025-02-02/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/2/3/trump-live-news-tariffs-spook-asian-markets-musk-says-usaid-should-die
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-03/trump-tariffs-us-fentanyl-supply-china-mexico-canada-explainer/104890222
Tariffs drug prices
Us Mexico 1 month tariff delay
Trump to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada after border enforcement pledges
Donald Trump pauses tariffs after Mexico agrees to send 10,000 troops to border
https://metro.co.uk/2025/02/03/donald-trump-pauses-tariffs-mexico-troops-border-canada-22489605/?ITO=msn
The CDC ordered to stop working with WHO immediately. No 1 year withdrawal.
US health.updates random
US HhS conference cancelled on the day
May have more info on what has stopped:
Meals on wheels
Medicaid portals
Removal.of DEI content from websites
US state department unexpectedly suspended
NIH funding frozen
https://alabamareflector.com/2025/01/30/fear-and-intimidation-alabama-research-institutions-quiet-as-trump-freezes-nih-grants/
CDC website scrubbing
Links to archived versions of every CDC.gov page available pre-purge
The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists will now host the important medical data the CDC no longer provides, on their website. https://www.acog.org/
Source
Charles Gaba CDC website in full index page
Charles Gaba CDC website in 15 parts - part 1
Wayback links
CDC website scrubbing sources:
Patrick Sullivan, an epidemiologist at Emory University and a former CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service officer, “it’s hard to understand how this benefits health.”
HHS spokesperson said that “all changes to the HHS website and HHS division websites are in accordance with President Trump’s January 20 Executive Orders” on gender and DEI.
https://open.substack.com/pub/paulmainwood/p/protecting-health-and-disease-data
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14168
State of play. CDC.website week2 Feb 3rd
CDC webpages go dark as Trump targets public health information
Gender related terms cut from scientific papers
Data and communication are gold
CDC's Advisers Demand Answers On Removal Of 'Critical' Health Data
CDC Data Removal Threatens Native Health, Violates Treaties, UIHI Says
CDC removes vital HIV data and LGBTQ references from websites
Youth Risk and Behaviour SS
https://archive.cdc.gov/#/details?url=https://www.cdc.gov/yrbs/files/2023/XXH2023_YRBS_Data.dat
Us Government IDEA website changed
https://asm.org/about-asm/asm-financials
https://bsky.app/profile/jlgoff.bsky.social/post/3lheggpro6s26
Climate change being erased
https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1887167939100483706?t=CqhaNYeDuhwiLihEr3Gb9Q&s=19
DOGE arrive at NOAA HQ
NOAA data has gone -.website unavailable
Scientists brace ‘for the worst’ as Trump purges climate mentions from websites
USDA Begins Deleting Website Pages on Climate Change | Civil Eats
EPA warns more than 1,100 employees could be fired 'immediately
You are not authorized to access this page
Trans care funding withdrawn for 0-18
Medical facilities cease transgender care for under 19s
Trump 2 sexes in Government
Tracking Trump – updates on the presidency’s first 100 days - only updated Mondays.
Done VA study outcomes COVID Flu RSV
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/2829342
Ebola DRC
https://www.reddit.com/r/ContagionCuriosity/s/KUfeBZ341Z
...about the concern of the case of Ebola in western DRC, that was in the Equateur province specifically. The first testing was done in Mbandaka. It tested negative. Then, because we were so concerned, giving the fact that the cases met the definition of Ebola and then the specimens were transferred to the INRB in Kinshasa and also confirmed that it is negative. What has been taking place is that in collaboration with the government, I think the... NPHI is sending a team to the Equateur region to investigate and take more samples to understand, if it's not Ebola, if it's not Marburg, then what is it...
Via Africa CDC Special Briefing on Mpox & other Health Emergencies || Feb. 6, 2025
Western DRC not ebola, not marburg, what is it?
Ebola Uganda
https://x.com/DrumChronicles/status/1884930169497878998?t=DxBe5VPPrI9u4DIfGxTs9w&s=19
https://x.com/BNOFeed/status/1887584467486974356?t=6-fFGmrdeIJa9wiXMuU4tg&s=09
Ebola
Uganda ebola patient 1
Sudan Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in Uganda. 30th January
6 contsctd ill Flutrackers and Stat News via WHO
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/ebola-uganda/1006219-uganda-outbreak-of-sudan-ebola-virus-disease-confirmed-in-kampala-ministry-of-health-january-30-2025
Update 6th Jan
Ebola in Uganda: Confirmed cases up to 7, all contacts of the first confirmed case, the male nurse who died on 1/29. That is the only death so far. Other cases are family members or health workers who treated the nurse. Nearly 300 contacts have been identified & are being monitored. (source: @WHO)
Ebola Uganda
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1887468495253668130?t=En_vVVQdLeZZy_81-duGWw&s=09
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Uganda_Ebola_outbreak
Uganda Ebola vaccine trial
https://x.com/WHO/status/1886522685783458224?t=RTP2rkKEUuA1j5nEmi_5hw&s=19
Ebola vaccine sudan disease
https://www.who.int/news/item/31-01-2025-who-and-partners-enable-access-to-candidate-vaccine-and-treatments-for-outbreak-of-sudan-ebola-virus-disease-in-uganda
Ring vaccination 2018-2020 successful in containing Ebola in DRC outbreak - over 265,000 individuals were vaccinated across nearly 2,000 rings
Marburg and Uganda Sudan Virus Disease - Ebola
Nevada D1.1 H5N1 in cattle for first time
https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2025/02/usda-confirms-genotype-d11-in-nevada.html
https://x.com/HelenBranswell/status/1887239321591160962?t=bueLHjiNts-NBHe3gZ59Vw&s=09
https://www.statnews.com/2025/02/05/usda-nevada-herds-different-bird-flu-strain-milk-testing/
Avian flu why Nevada bovine strain is so bad - virologist
Ph.D. virologist TheSaxonPlan on Reddit
Latest livestock detections APHIS
How dangerous is H5N1? Large post with many links
https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/s/YwxpuGcgpG
policy lead for CDC's H5N1 response has resigned
https://bsky.app/profile/justinling.ca/post/3lhi5mmvzw22v
US Bird flu sit rep Jan 2025
There are unconfirmed rumours of human with H5N1 near Dallas, Fort Worth
HPAI - Bidens fault egg prices are high
https://ukcdr.org.uk/case-study/the-fight-against-bird-flu/
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/virus-transmission/avian-in-birds.html
Eggs sell out in COSTCO
Cats with bird flu CDC website edits
https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/s/m98F1TcfoA
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html
Nevada chickens
Moderna bird flu vaccine
2 field trials of avian flu vaccine (non-human) Philippines
Antibody treatment prevents severe bird flu in monkeys
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado6481
Duck with HPAI H5N9
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/27/bird-flue-h5n9-california
Rare bird flu strain found in California H5N9
https://archive.ph/AJtxj
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-reported-first-outbreak-h5n9-bird-flu-poultry-woah-says-2025-01-27/?utm_source=reddit.com
Argentina withdraw from WHO
Israel withdraw from the UNHCR
Measles.outbreak in Southwestern Ontario
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/vaccines/index.html
https://familydoctor.org/condition/measles/
https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Documents/M/24/measles-ontario-epi-summary.pdf
Tanzania Marburg
TB increasing
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/major-tuberculosis-outbreak-hits-kansas-city-area-2025-01-29/
TB in Kansas has dpread to Ohio - unconfirmed
https://x.com/AnnieForTruth/status/1886759315064946977?t=X0eKzBoSvai5VRcPJwgA6g&s=09
Charity stops using Captain Sir Tom Moore's name - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx257pl7lkvo
RFK Jr letter signed by not real doctors
Nigel Farage has claimed we got the COVID vaccine first as a Brexit benefit
H1 - more likely to make you vomit and cough
H3 - more likely to give you a higher fever
H5N1 (D1.1 wild bird / severe human and B3.13 dairy cows / mild human)
H7N6 also making headlines
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